Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONCERNS ON PCPN POTENTIAL WITH ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND LLVL JET HAS MAINTAINED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WI.
QUESTION IS WHAT THE DAYS RAIN HAS DONE TO POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS. VARIETY OF BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND IN ADDITION
TO WARM FRONT VCNTY MSP AND COLD FRONT WESTERN MN. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS SCENARIO PORTRAYED IN RAPID UPDATE RUC...WITH DEVELOPMENT
WESTERN WI/EASTERN MN...AND ADVANCING LINE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. STILL CAPPED A BIT IN MSP AREA GIVEN 18Z SOUNDING...THOUGH
NO INHIBITION AND 1200 CAPE IN GRB. SLIGHT RISK REMAINS FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI...WITH INCREASING
SHEAR AS JET SINKS SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKES. PRECIP WATERS STILL IN 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALREADY REPORTED IN
CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 1.5 INCH AMOUNTS
OVER CWA TONIGHT...NAM/RUC POINT TO NORTHERN WI...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST LOW.

FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. 850 FLOW SHIFTS NW
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU NEXT TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TO DOMINATE THE AREA/S WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. IN
GENERAL...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
ATTEMPTING TO SLIDE SOME PCPN INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. THIS MORNING MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT NORTH INTO IOWA LATER FRIDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF WITH A RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET SLIDES SEWD OVER OR
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THESE DYNAMICS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
AT THIS TIME WILL CONFINE BEST CHC OF RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. REMOVED
THE AFTERNOON CHC FOR SATURDAY...MAY BE NEEDED LATER ON BUT THE THREAT
OF THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTING TOWARD TOWARD THE REGION IS
QUESTIONABLE. DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY WITH FEATURES FOR FOCUS
OF CONVECTION...AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRIER
FORECAST UNTIL THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME WHERE MDM PROGS
ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT WITH A FROPA PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH STATE TONIGHT WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT WED AFTERNOON.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON ONE TO
TWO INCHES AGAIN INCREASES RISK OF FLOODING.  SEE ESF.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TE/TDH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
414 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-282115-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
414 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. THERE
IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EARLY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-282115-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
414 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A HAZARD FOR SMALL CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
851 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW RHINELANDER        45.68N 89.48W
07/27/2010  E65.00 MPH       ONEIDA             WI   PUBLIC

            REPORTED IN NEWBOLD.

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
902 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MANITOWISH WATERS       46.13N 89.88W
07/27/2010                   VILAS              WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE
            COUNTY

&&

TOMH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
905 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E ALVIN               46.01N 88.68W
07/27/2010                   FOREST             WI   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 70 NEAR FLORENCE COUNTY BORDER. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
915 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MANITOWISH WATERS       46.13N 89.88W
07/27/2010                   VILAS              WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE
            COUNTY

&&

TOMH