Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONCERNS ON PCPN POTENTIAL WITH ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND LLVL JET HAS MAINTAINED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WI.
QUESTION IS WHAT THE DAYS RAIN HAS DONE TO POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS. VARIETY OF BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND IN ADDITION
TO WARM FRONT VCNTY MSP AND COLD FRONT WESTERN MN. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS SCENARIO PORTRAYED IN RAPID UPDATE RUC...WITH DEVELOPMENT
WESTERN WI/EASTERN MN...AND ADVANCING LINE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. STILL CAPPED A BIT IN MSP AREA GIVEN 18Z SOUNDING...THOUGH
NO INHIBITION AND 1200 CAPE IN GRB. SLIGHT RISK REMAINS FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI...WITH INCREASING
SHEAR AS JET SINKS SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKES. PRECIP WATERS STILL IN 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALREADY REPORTED IN
CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 1.5 INCH AMOUNTS
OVER CWA TONIGHT...NAM/RUC POINT TO NORTHERN WI...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST LOW.

FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. 850 FLOW SHIFTS NW
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU NEXT TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TO DOMINATE THE AREA/S WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. IN
GENERAL...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
ATTEMPTING TO SLIDE SOME PCPN INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. THIS MORNING MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT NORTH INTO IOWA LATER FRIDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF WITH A RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET SLIDES SEWD OVER OR
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THESE DYNAMICS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
AT THIS TIME WILL CONFINE BEST CHC OF RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. REMOVED
THE AFTERNOON CHC FOR SATURDAY...MAY BE NEEDED LATER ON BUT THE THREAT
OF THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTING TOWARD TOWARD THE REGION IS
QUESTIONABLE. DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY WITH FEATURES FOR FOCUS
OF CONVECTION...AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRIER
FORECAST UNTIL THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME WHERE MDM PROGS
ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT WITH A FROPA PASSAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH STATE TONIGHT WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT WED AFTERNOON.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON ONE TO
TWO INCHES AGAIN INCREASES RISK OF FLOODING.  SEE ESF.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TE/TDH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
414 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-282115-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
414 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. THERE
IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EARLY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-282115-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
414 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A HAZARD FOR SMALL CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
533 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             TIGERTON                44.73N 89.05W
07/27/2010  M1.75 INCH       SHAWANO            WI   PUBLIC

            REPORTED RELAYED BY WSAW-TV.

&&

ECKBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
614 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

WIZ005-010>012-018-019-280015-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON...
TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO
614 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...

AT 610 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARBOR VITAE
WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 40 MPH AND HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL SHOULD
MOVE INTO VILAS COUNTY BETWEEN 7 AND 730 PM. THE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS ONEIDA...FOREST AND FLORENCE COUNTIES BETWEEN 730
AND 9 PM. THE STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO LINCOLN
AND LANGLADE COUNTIES BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM.

AS THE STORMS APPROACH YOUR AREA...BOATERS AND CAMPERS SHOULD
SEEK SAFE SHELTER AWAY FROM TALL TREES. TORRENTIAL RAINS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE AS SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

REMEMBER... CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF
TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM.

ECKBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
721 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TIPLER                  45.91N 88.63W
07/27/2010                   FLORENCE           WI   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF HWY 70 AND 139. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

BERSCH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
851 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW RHINELANDER        45.68N 89.48W
07/27/2010  E65.00 MPH       ONEIDA             WI   PUBLIC

            REPORTED IN NEWBOLD.

&&

BERSCH