Tornado Warning 70, NWS Goodland, KS

538 
WWUS53 KGLD 220240
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
840 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

COC063-125-KSC181-220249-
/O.CAN.KGLD.TO.W.0070.000000T0000Z-100622T0315Z/
KIT CARSON CO-YUMA CO-SHERMAN KS-
840 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SHERMAN...SOUTHEASTERN YUMA
AND NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN GOODLAND.

LAT...LON 3943 10188 3926 10215 3970 10254 3981 10236
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 320DEG 18KT 3956 10225

$$

JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)
220 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CU BUILD UP
OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL NORTH
OF THE ANALYZED FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. MODELS
INCONCLUSIVE ON WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THIS
AREA...MOST NOTABLY THE 18Z NAM WHICH HAS BACKED OFF COMPLETELY.
NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE FEATURES
MENTIONED. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH A RISK OF HIGH WIND AND HAIL.

FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND END
UP NEAR THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS...PARTICULARLY NEAR/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 WHERE WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED TO
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN CWA...AND NEAR THE
DRY LINE IN THE EASTERN CWA....LEAVING A FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF IT
DRY.

RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH DURING THE
DAY...BUT MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDER WAY BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WILL TRY TO DRIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW SO FELT IT ONLY WARRANTED 20 POPS AT THIS POINT.

STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE
COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIMBING THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION IN EASTERN COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON.
MEAN 0-6KM WINDS FORECAST TO BE 250/10-15KTS...SO SOME OF THESE MAY
SURVIVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER A 40KT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND COULD BE MAINTAINED WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM... (FRIDAY - MONDAY)
220 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD WILL
RETREAT EASTWARD AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IT
LIFTS RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS AN OPEN WAVE. HOWEVER...IT WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AND BE POSSIBLE INITIATING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION.
THOSE FEATURES MOVE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE CONVECTION WILL BE A DAILY CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

024
&&

.AVIATION...
515 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED AFTER 02Z. FOR NOW ACTIVITY AROUND GLD LOOKS ISOLATED...SO
KEPT VCTS IN GLD TAF FOR NOW. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED
AROUND MCK DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...SO KEPT TSRA IN AFTER
03Z. CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO DISSIPATE AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER
05-06Z...HOWEVER WITH LATEST RUC INDICATING LLJ SUPPORT OVER
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD CANT
RULE OUT LINGERING TSRA AFTER 06Z AT MCK...POSSIBLY REQUIRING A TAF
AMENDMENT LATER IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TUESDAY...SO
INTRODUCED CB TO LATE PERIOD OF THIS TAF CYCLE.

DR
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1044 AM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-221645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1044 AM MDT MON JUN 21 2010 /1144 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS WILL
INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EAST AND ENCOUNTER HIGHER MOISTURE AND A
MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
741 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NNW IDALIA            39.79N 102.37W
06/21/2010                   YUMA               CO   STORM CHASER

            FROM MY CURRENT LOCATION RANGING AS FAR AS 1.5 MILES NOW
            TO THE NORTH POWER LINES ARE DOWN, WITH THE POLES EITHER
            SNAPPED IN HALF OR BROKEN OFF AT THE BOTTOM, SOME MAY
            FALLACROSS THE ROAD AT ANY TIME, SAFETY ISSUE / DAMAGE
            REPORT. RELAYED FROM SPOTTERNETWORK.ORG

&&

HENDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
754 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             3 S WINONA              39.02N 101.25W
06/21/2010  E1.75 INCH       LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
756 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             4 W ST. FRANCIS         39.77N 101.88W
06/21/2010  E2.50 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   STORM CHASER

0754 PM     HAIL             ST. FRANCIS             39.77N 101.80W
06/21/2010  E1.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTERS TO GOLFBALLS IN TOWN WITH 40 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

HENDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
757 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             ST. FRANCIS             39.77N 101.80W
06/21/2010  E2.50 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HENDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
805 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             13 NE YUMA              40.26N 102.55W
06/21/2010  E2.50 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE BROKEN WINDOWS

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
808 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             5 W OAKLEY              39.13N 100.95W
06/21/2010  E1.75 INCH       LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0805 PM     HAIL             OAKLEY                  39.13N 100.85W
06/21/2010  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

HENDERSON