Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)
220 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CU BUILD UP
OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL NORTH
OF THE ANALYZED FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. MODELS
INCONCLUSIVE ON WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THIS
AREA...MOST NOTABLY THE 18Z NAM WHICH HAS BACKED OFF COMPLETELY.
NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE FEATURES
MENTIONED. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH A RISK OF HIGH WIND AND HAIL.

FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND END
UP NEAR THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS...PARTICULARLY NEAR/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 WHERE WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED TO
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN CWA...AND NEAR THE
DRY LINE IN THE EASTERN CWA....LEAVING A FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF IT
DRY.

RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH DURING THE
DAY...BUT MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDER WAY BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WILL TRY TO DRIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW SO FELT IT ONLY WARRANTED 20 POPS AT THIS POINT.

STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE
COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIMBING THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION IN EASTERN COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON.
MEAN 0-6KM WINDS FORECAST TO BE 250/10-15KTS...SO SOME OF THESE MAY
SURVIVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER A 40KT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND COULD BE MAINTAINED WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM... (FRIDAY - MONDAY)
220 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD WILL
RETREAT EASTWARD AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IT
LIFTS RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS AN OPEN WAVE. HOWEVER...IT WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AND BE POSSIBLE INITIATING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION.
THOSE FEATURES MOVE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE CONVECTION WILL BE A DAILY CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

024
&&

.AVIATION...
515 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED AFTER 02Z. FOR NOW ACTIVITY AROUND GLD LOOKS ISOLATED...SO
KEPT VCTS IN GLD TAF FOR NOW. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED
AROUND MCK DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...SO KEPT TSRA IN AFTER
03Z. CURRENTLY EXPECT STORMS TO DISSIPATE AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER
05-06Z...HOWEVER WITH LATEST RUC INDICATING LLJ SUPPORT OVER
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD CANT
RULE OUT LINGERING TSRA AFTER 06Z AT MCK...POSSIBLY REQUIRING A TAF
AMENDMENT LATER IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TUESDAY...SO
INTRODUCED CB TO LATE PERIOD OF THIS TAF CYCLE.

DR
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1044 AM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-221645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1044 AM MDT MON JUN 21 2010 /1144 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS WILL
INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EAST AND ENCOUNTER HIGHER MOISTURE AND A
MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
108 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     HAIL             1 N CLARKVILLE          40.39N 102.62W
06/20/2010  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TIME OF REPORT ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

&&

JSL