Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...
326 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. KGLD RADAR WAS QUIET FOR NOW.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WED. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WILL IMPACT THE FA TODAY/TONIGHT.
CAPE OF 2200 J/KG WILL HELP STORMS FIRE ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH
WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THIS EVENT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE SOME BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR TUESDAY SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE NO
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING THROUGH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING CHANCE POPS. ONE
MORE WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH QUIET WEATHER WED
NIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE.

THE WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL COVER THE ENTIRE
FA. SEE DETAILS BELOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM TODAY BUT WILL FALL OFF A FEW
DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE/WED. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 40S/50S.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
1122 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

FOR THE 18Z TAF...PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WHICH COULD IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL ATTEMPTS AT
CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF KGLD HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED DUE TO
STRONG SHEAR OVERPOWERING THE STORM. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS TONIGHT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AFTER
15Z TOMORROW.

FOLTZ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001-013.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ002>004-014>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079-080.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ081.

CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010 /1145 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE TRI-STATE
REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
BUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. OF COURSE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING OCCURS WITH EVERY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1126 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

COZ092-KSZ027-041-241800-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-GREELEY-WALLACE-
1126 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND GREELEY COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 1122 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SHERIDAN LAKE...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF HORACE...AND MOVING NORTH AT
55 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1138 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST JOES                    39.65N 102.68W
05/24/2010  M60 MPH          YUMA               CO   MESONET

&&

DTHEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1146 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 AM     HAIL             5 SSW WESKAN            38.79N 102.00W
05/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       WALLACE            KS   PUBLIC

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1151 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST FLAGLER                 39.29N 103.07W
05/24/2010  M59 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   MESONET

&&

DTHEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1152 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     HAIL             6 SE ARAPAHOE           38.79N 102.09W
05/24/2010  E1.25 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1158 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1152 AM     HAIL             2 WSW WESKAN            38.85N 101.99W
05/24/2010  E2.00 INCH       WALLACE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL BROKE A TRACTOR WINDSHIELD

&&

MENTZER