Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 PM MDT SUN MAY 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...
322 PM MDT SUN MAY 23 2010

EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DATA
INDICATES THE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY EQUATOR-WARD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER COLORADO AND
NEW MEXICO AND IS TRANSLATING NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAS STALLED AND IS SLOWING BEGINNING TO
MIX NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. CU FIELD OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH A FEW WEAK ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTION FROM
NEAR KDDC SOUTHWEST TOWARD KPYX.

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY WINDS TOMORROW AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STAGE IS SET FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS EVENING IF
STRONG CAPPING CAN BE OVERCOME. MU CAPE IS RAPIDLY INCREASING
SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH VALUES AS HIGH AS 4500 J/KG
OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL THEN MIX
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A DRYLINE
HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
YIELDING A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ~55-60
KTS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ONLY
AID IN LENGTHENING THE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE. ANY STORM WHICH DOES
FORM SHOULD QUICKLY OBTAIN SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE LEADING TO
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. GIVEN STRONG 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF ROUGHLY 30 KTS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
TRANSLATE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY AFTER.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE
EAST OF THE COLORADO STATE LINE AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARY
THREAT LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WEAK SURFACE
FROPA WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE AREA REMAINING UNDER
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR THE DAY TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS LOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING YET ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.

BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THURSDAY WITH THE CLOSED MID/UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION. SHOULD BE POST FRONTAL ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
514 PM MDT SUN MAY 23 2010

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. RADAR TRENDS AT 23Z
SHOWED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MOVING NORTH AT NEAR
50KTS...SO EXPECT IMPACTS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY PRECIPITATION CORE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD END TOWARDS 06Z...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET.

024
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT SUN MAY 23 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-241200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT SUN MAY 23 2010 /1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM MDT (5 PM
CDT) ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TRIBUNE KANSAS TO NORTON
KANSAS AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION NOW IN PLACE WHICH WILL ACT TO
SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THIS EVENING.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 7 PM
MDT (8 PM CDT) ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 AS THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE EVENING AND THE CAPPING INVERSION
WEAKENS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...THE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL EXIST
THIS EVENING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY
TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

DLF

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