Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
403 AM EDT MON OCT 25 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING
SHOULD PUSH ACROSS GEORGIA TODAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE HAS PUSHED DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA. LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE NOW TROUGH
AROUND 18Z...THEN TAPERING OFF AFTER THAT. CURRENTLY HAVE A
TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...BUT WE REMAIN IN
A MOIST AIR MASS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAVE LEFT POPS IN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH BEST POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH. MAIN COLD FRONT STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HAVE STAYED ON WARM SIDE OF MAV/MET BUT RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL CAUSE
SOME DIFFERENCES ESPECIALLY ON THE MAX TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SHOULD PULL
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN INDICATED ON THE LAST DAY...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ADD
MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NW GA THIS MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS. LOW CEILINGS (BKN010-OVC020) SHOULD ALSO MOVE IN BY
09Z-10Z. ONCE THE PRECIP MOVES IN SHOULD SEE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH 18Z-20Z. THE MAIN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NE INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY 18Z TAKING THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WITH IT. WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE SE FOR NOW BUT WILL TURN TO THE SW BY 12Z-14Z.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 6-12KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUST IN AND
AROUND TSRA DEVELOPMENT. VSBYS WILL IN THE MVFR-VFR RANGE EXCEPT
IN A THUNDERSTORMS WHERE YOU WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS TEMPORARILY

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          78  65  79  65  81 /  90  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         78  66  79  68  80 /  90  20  30  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  61  74  62  76 /  90  30  40  60  40
CARTERSVILLE    77  65  79  64  81 /  90  20  40  50  30
COLUMBUS        85  69  84  70  84 /  90  20  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     72  65  75  64  77 /  90  30  40  50  30
MACON           85  66  85  68  85 /  80  20  20  20  20
ROME            79  65  81  64  82 /  90  20  40  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  78  65  80  65  81 /  90  20  30  40  20
VIDALIA         85  67  87  69  87 /  70  30  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FLOYD...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...POLK...TROUP...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 PM EDT SUN OCT 24 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-250945-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
135 PM EDT SUN OCT 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM ATLANTA AND WEST LATE
TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE AREA WITH GOOD VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED. HOWEVER THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY AS
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.