Severe Thunderstorm Warning 329, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
346 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
PRIMARY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED EAST OUT
OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL
GA...AS CLEARING CONDITIONS ALLOWED FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO SPIN UP
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION...AND VORT MAX ACROSS NORTH GA...BOTH SEVERE AND TORNADO
WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 00Z WHEN DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORT IS
LOST.

WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE COMES ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
REGION. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
TUESDAY MORNING...A BROAD CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THIS LOW LOOPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST...
APPROACHING NORTHWEST GEORGIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY SHOWS LITTLE PROGRESSION FROM WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY...KEEPING BEST POPS IN ACROSS NORTH GA...AND POPS
DIMINISHING SOUTH AND EAST. WITH DECENT SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITIES
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE IN NATURE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT IN CONJUNCTION WITH CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. WITH DECENT SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LOW LCL
HEIGHTS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CIRCULATIONS IN CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT TORNADIC ACTIVITY IS NOT THE MAJOR THREAT.
SPC DOES HAVE N AND NW GEORGIA IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
FOR DAY 2...BEGINNING 12Z ON TUESDAY.

TENDED TOWARDS THE HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOWS
WITH THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND
ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG NORTHWEST GA THROUGH WEDNESDAY QUICKLY PUSHES
THROUGH GEORGIA BY THURSDAY EVENING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY WEEK KEEPING
THINGS UNEVENTFUL ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS INTO THE
WEEKEND...SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES IN PLAY
NEXT WEEK COULD MAKE FOR AN EVENTFUL DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED 150 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2010/
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONVECTION HAS PUSHED THROUGH TAF SITES...WITH CLEARING TREND
NOTED IN SATELLITE...EXPECT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAINLY NORTH BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ATL AREA SITES FOR POSSIBLE TSRA/CB.  SCT-BKN
060-080 CIGS ALL BUT CSG/MCN...WHERE CIGS NEAR 030.  UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS N GA...AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SCT-BKN050 CIGS WILL DEVELOP
BY 22-00Z ALL SITES....WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR AFTER
04Z.  1-3SM VISIBILITY ALL SITES BY 09-10Z.  WINDS ARE TRICKY...
MAINLY S...START ATL 170 INITIALLY THROUGH 23Z THEN 190 OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIG/VISIBILITY ELEMENTS.
LOW TO MEDIUM ON WINDS.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  79  65  80  56 /  20  30  50  60  40
ATLANTA         65  80  67  79  56 /  20  30  60  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     60  73  61  76  48 /  30  50  90  70  20
CARTERSVILLE    65  80  65  79  50 /  20  40  70  70  20
COLUMBUS        69  85  70  85  64 /  10  30  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     63  76  64  78  55 /  30  40  70  70  30
MACON           64  85  69  84  63 /  20  20  30  40  50
ROME            63  81  64  78  48 /  20  60  80  70  20
PEACHTREE CITY  63  80  67  80  54 /  20  30  50  60  40
VIDALIA         66  88  69  87  66 /  30  10  10  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BLECKLEY...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...PEACH...PULASKI...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WASHINGTON...WILKINSON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX.

&&

31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1110 AM EDT MON OCT 25 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1110 AM EDT MON OCT 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TENNESSEE AND NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS....HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AREAS EAST OF A MACON TO GREENSBORO
LINE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS MORNING WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS LINE IS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES NEAR 2000...LIFTED INDICES IN THE -2 TO -6 RANGE
AND GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ISOLATED STORMS ALONG IT HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
631 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SWAINSBORO              32.60N 82.33W
10/25/2010                   EMANUEL            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1 TREE DOWN ON HWY 221 NORTH.

0412 PM     HAIL             SWAINSBORO              32.60N 82.33W
10/25/2010  E1.00 INCH       EMANUEL            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BELANGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
639 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             DUBLIN                  32.54N 82.90W
10/25/2010  E1.00 INCH       LAURENS            GA   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED NEAR OLD MACON ROAD AND GA HWY 338.

0630 PM     HAIL             4 WNW DUBLIN            32.56N 82.97W
10/25/2010  E1.00 INCH       LAURENS            GA   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED NEAR AIRPORT ROAD.

&&

BELANGER

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