Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
245 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY ENTER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY...THEN DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN TODAY.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED MAINLY FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY. DIURNAL HEATING WITH PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITIES WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP OVERNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SLOWLY BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY. WITH BOUNDARY IN VICINITY...AND COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES)...
WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF STORMS PLUS ABUNDANT MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN/LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY.
MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN FA LATE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
FA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS AND TREND POPS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THOUGH THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH EXACT TIMING
AND POSITION OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF KCAE/KAGS.
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. VCTS/CB IN TAFS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BULK OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT...NOW NORTH OF THE
AREA...WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. DRIER AIR COULD FILTER IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
432 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-300832-
AIKEN-BAMBERG-BARNWELL-BURKE-CALHOUN-CHESTERFIELD-CLARENDON-COLUMBIA-
EDGEFIELD-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-LANCASTER-LEE-LEXINGTON-LINCOLN-MCCORMICK-
MCDUFFIE-NEWBERRY-ORANGEBURG-RICHLAND-RICHMOND-SALUDA-SUMTER-
432 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCAL GUSTY WINDS
FROM DOWNBURSTS WHICH MAY BRING SOME TREES DOWN AND DO SOME
DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.