Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY ENTER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY...THEN DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN TODAY.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED MAINLY FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY. DIURNAL HEATING WITH PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITIES WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP OVERNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SLOWLY BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY. WITH BOUNDARY IN VICINITY...AND COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES)...
WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF STORMS PLUS ABUNDANT MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN/LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY.
MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN FA LATE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
FA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS AND TREND POPS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THOUGH THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH EXACT TIMING
AND POSITION OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDLANDS WILL AFFECT KCAE/KCUB/KOGB
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
VCNTY OF KAGS/KDNL. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BY 04Z AS STORMS
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE. LOW LEVEL JET
AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. STILL EXPECT A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDLANDS WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL
MOVE. THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED CB IN ALL TAFS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. DRIER AIR COULD FILTER IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
331 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ018-025-026-030-035>038-041-301945-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-MCCORMICK-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-
AIKEN-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-BAMBERG-
331 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCAL GUSTY WINDS
FROM DOWNBURSTS WHICH MAY BRING SOME TREES DOWN AND DO SOME
DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ015-016-020>022-027>029-031-301945-
LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-
LEE-SUMTER-
331 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
525 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW CHAPIN            34.17N 81.36W
06/29/2010                   LEXINGTON          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORT POWERLINES DOWN ON CHAPIN
            ROAD

&&

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
541 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

GAZ040-063-064-292230-
COLUMBIA-LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-
541 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING COLUMBIA...LINCOLN AND
MCDUFFIE COUNTIES...

AT 540 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF LINCOLNTON...OR 15 MILES NORTH
OF THOMSON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 877 6 3
3...6 7 7 2.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
549 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ENE CHESTERFIELD      34.76N 80.00W
06/29/2010                   CHESTERFIELD       SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CHERAW FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS
            DOWN...TREES DOWN...POWER LINES DOWN AND A ROOF TORE OFF
            A CHICKEN HOUSE IN THE BROCKS MILL COMMUNITY.

&&

VAUGHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
604 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW LUGOFF            34.17N 80.71W
06/29/2010                   KERSHAW            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORT OF TREES DOWN NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF JORDAN AND KENNEDY ROADS

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
656 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSE LINCOLNTON        33.71N 82.46W
06/29/2010                   LINCOLN            GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED TREES AND LIMBS DOWN NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF HWY 220 AND THOMSON HWY.

&&

VAUGHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
724 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 WSW OAKLAND           33.95N 80.60W
06/29/2010                   SUMTER             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF DISPATCH REPORTED TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 378 NEAR
            THE WATEREE RIVER

0648 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW RED BANK          33.90N 81.25W
06/29/2010                   LEXINGTON          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE ALONG
            PLATT SPRINGS ROAD IN THE RED BANK COMMUNITY.

&&

VAUGHAN