Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TODAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY ENTER OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...THEN DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TODAY...THOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS HOT TODAY. MOS MAX TEMPS ARE TRENDING DOWN SOME FOR
TODAY...THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A TAD TOO COOL LATELY. IT
ALSO APPEARS WE WONT START OUT QUITE AS WARM THIS MORNING. THOUGH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH 105 IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...DONT THINK WE WILL HAVE TWO HOURS OF 105 HEAT INDICES
OR HIGHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. DIURNAL HEATING WITH PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITIES WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SLOWLY BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY. WITH BOUNDARY IN VICINITY...AND COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES)...
WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF STORMS PLUS ABUNDANT MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN/LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY.
MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN FA LATE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
FA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS AND TREND POPS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THOUGH THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH EXACT TIMING
AND POSITION OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT
APPEARS FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AND REMAIN THERE...WHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS
OVER OUR REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF KCAE/KAGS.
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. VCTS/CB IN TAFS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BULK OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT...NOW NORTH OF THE
AREA...WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. DRIER AIR COULD FILTER IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
432 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-300832-
AIKEN-BAMBERG-BARNWELL-BURKE-CALHOUN-CHESTERFIELD-CLARENDON-COLUMBIA-
EDGEFIELD-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-LANCASTER-LEE-LEXINGTON-LINCOLN-MCCORMICK-
MCDUFFIE-NEWBERRY-ORANGEBURG-RICHLAND-RICHMOND-SALUDA-SUMTER-
432 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCAL GUSTY WINDS
FROM DOWNBURSTS WHICH MAY BRING SOME TREES DOWN AND DO SOME
DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.