Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...

A BUSY START TO THE SHIFT WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE PROJECTED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT HAS HAPPENED FASTER AND FARTHER EAST THAN
INDICATED BY MODELS AND SO SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH SOONER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THE LINE
SHOULD BE NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY 6 AM AND NEAR THE GEORGIA
STATE LINE BY 9 AM. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT
WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...THERE WILL
ALSO BE A WIND THREAT AS CONVECTIVE LINE TAPS INTO MORE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THERE IS ALSO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROF. EVEN THOUGH MAIN LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS MORNING...THERE MAY BE A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY THIS
ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE SEVERE SINCE AIR MASS WILL BE WORKED OVER
FROM PREVIOUS STORMS.

MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF ALABAMA BY 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS AREA...AND WILL LIKELY SEE A
RETURN OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER LOW LEVEL ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST. LIKE THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS WARM AS WHAT HAPPENED ON THURSDAY.
LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER
LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS RIGHT OVER NORTH ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...
RESULTING IN A RATHER CLOUDY AND COOL DAY WITH PASSING SHOWERS.

BROAD DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY
WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PUSH RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT WITH IT AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY
SO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RAIN FREE.

58/ROSE

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE WEST ARE THE
MAIN FEATURE AT ISSUANCE...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER.  A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER
TONIGHT...AND REALLY ALREADY IS AS TS ARE ALREADY FIRING ALONG IT
UPSTREAM.

LOOK FOR THESE STORMS TO BEGIN MAKING THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND 09Z AND INTO TCL BY 10Z.  MVFR
CIGS AND VIS SHOULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE LIGHTER SHOWERS...BUT
DEFINITELY EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS AND VIS AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND TS.  THESE SHOULD SPREAD TO THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR AND
BHM/EET/MGM AROUND 12Z...AND TOI/ANB BY 13-14Z.  FROPA WILL BE
MARKED BEHIND THE HEAVIER STORMS WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW...BUT
NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ANY PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE MAIN
ACTIVITY.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER THE
FROPA...BUT EITHER WAY...STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR CIG DECK TO
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  40  53  39  55 /  80  40  50  40  20
ANNISTON    64  42  53  40  56 /  80  30  50  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  64  43  54  41  55 /  80  30  50  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  64  43  55  42  58 /  80  30  40  30  10
CALERA      64  44  55  41  55 /  80  30  40  30  20
AUBURN      68  43  59  40  56 /  70  20  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  68  44  59  42  59 /  60  20  30  20  10
TROY        69  42  62  39  61 /  60  10  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
115 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-121500-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
115 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS LINE WILL CARRY WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. ALSO...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF GROUND
SATURATION ALREADY IN PLACE...ANY STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT.  PLEASE REFER TO CURRENT RIVER STATEMENTS FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.  THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 AM...AND CONTINUE TO CARRY WITH IT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS WELL.  CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING HAS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 2
PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE EXACT TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.  PLEASE REFER TO CURRENT RIVER STATEMENTS
FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
217 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 AM     HAIL             VERNON                  33.76N 88.11W
03/12/2010  E1.75 INCH       LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MROSE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
331 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     HAIL             BEAR CREEK              34.26N 87.72W
03/12/2010  E2.50 INCH       MARION             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MROSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
336 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

ALZ031-121015-
GREENE-
336 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR GREENE COUNTY UNTIL 415 AM CST...

AT 336 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR GAINESVILLE...OR 13 MILES WEST OF EUTAW. THIS STORM
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME INTENSIFICATION AND
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  BOLIGEE.
  NEW MOUNT HEBRON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
345 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

ALZ039-121030-
MARENGO-
345 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MARENGO COUNTY UNTIL 430 AM CST...

AT 342 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR NANAFALIA...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LINDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  HALF ACRE.
  MYRTLEWOOD.
  CALVARY.
  PIN HOOK.
  JEFFERSON.
  DEMOPOLIS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.