Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1120 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010

.UPDATE...OVERNIGHT WEATHER AND 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF OVER TEXAS IS ALREADY PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST MISSISSIPPI...WHICH SEEMS UNREAL CONSIDERING
JACKSON'S UPPER AIR SOUNDING.  THE 00Z SOUNDING HAD A PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT OF ONLY .36 INCHES...A K-INDEX OF 2 AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S.  LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL BRING RAPID DESTABILIZATION ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  SHORT WAVE TROF ALSO FORECAST TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND HELP CONCENTRATE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ALONG DISCRETE BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AS 500MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR -20 CELSIUS ADVECT IN AREA...BUT 0-3KM SRH ALSO
FORECAST TO APPROACH 200 M2/S2 BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z OVER WEST
ALABAMA.  THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR TORNADOES WILL BE HIGH LCL
VALUES...DUE TO DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER...BUT ROTATING STORMS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY DUE TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 60
KNOTS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK HAS BEEN ADDED TO WESTERN COUNTIES OF
ALABAMA BETWEEN 3AM AND 6AM.

58/ROSE

&&

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE WEST ARE THE
MAIN FEATURE AT ISSUANCE...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER.  A STALLED OUT COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER
TONIGHT...AND REALLY ALREADY IS AS TS ARE ALREADY FIRING ALONG IT
UPSTREAM.

LOOK FOR THESE STORMS TO BEGIN MAKING THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND 09Z AND INTO TCL BY 10Z.  MVFR
CIGS AND VIS SHOULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE LIGHTER SHOWERS...BUT
DEFINITELY EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS AND VIS AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND TS.  THESE SHOULD SPREAD TO THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR AND
BHM/EET/MGM AROUND 12Z...AND TOI/ANB BY 13-14Z.  FROPA WILL BE
MARKED BEHIND THE HEAVIER STORMS WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW...BUT
NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ANY PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE MAIN
ACTIVITY.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER THE
FROPA...BUT EITHER WAY...STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR CIG DECK TO
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

27

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
115 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-121500-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
115 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS LINE WILL CARRY WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. ALSO...DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF GROUND
SATURATION ALREADY IN PLACE...ANY STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT.  PLEASE REFER TO CURRENT RIVER STATEMENTS FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.  THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 AM...AND CONTINUE TO CARRY WITH IT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS WELL.  CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING HAS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 2
PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE EXACT TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.  PLEASE REFER TO CURRENT RIVER STATEMENTS
FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
118 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

ALZ011-012-120815-
LAMAR-MARION-
118 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LAMAR AND MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 215
AM CST...

AT 114 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  BYRD.
  HENSON SPRINGS.
  WESTON.
  PEARCES MILL.
  HACKLEBURG.
  TESSNER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

12/SIRMON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
155 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     HAIL             10 W HAMILTON           34.14N 88.16W
03/12/2010  E2.00 INCH       MARION             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
217 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 AM     HAIL             VERNON                  33.76N 88.11W
03/12/2010  E1.75 INCH       LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MROSE

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