River Flood Warning 35, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BUSY START TO THE SHIFT WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE PROJECTED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT HAS HAPPENED FASTER AND FARTHER EAST THAN
INDICATED BY MODELS AND SO SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH SOONER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THE LINE
SHOULD BE NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY 6 AM AND NEAR THE GEORGIA
STATE LINE BY 9 AM. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT
WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...THERE WILL
ALSO BE A WIND THREAT AS CONVECTIVE LINE TAPS INTO MORE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THERE IS ALSO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROF. EVEN THOUGH MAIN LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS MORNING...THERE MAY BE A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY THIS
ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE SEVERE SINCE AIR MASS WILL BE WORKED OVER
FROM PREVIOUS STORMS.

MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF ALABAMA BY 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS AREA...AND WILL LIKELY SEE A
RETURN OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER LOW LEVEL ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST. LIKE THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS WARM AS WHAT HAPPENED ON THURSDAY.
LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER
LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS RIGHT OVER NORTH ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...
RESULTING IN A RATHER CLOUDY AND COOL DAY WITH PASSING SHOWERS.

BROAD DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY
WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PUSH RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT WITH IT AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY
SO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK RAIN FREE.

58/ROSE

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AVIATION AT BHM EET
AND ANB BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z.  CEILINGS WILL FALL AROUND 1000 FEET IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND VISIBILITY WILL FALL TO
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 SM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.  THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH.  BEHIND THE LINE OF
STORMS...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS.  WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER NEAR TCL ANB BHM AND EET THROUGH
MIDDAY UNDER GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-131300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
530 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 65 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85 DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 2 PM IN EXTREME EASTERN ALABAMA.
LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME ARE LIKELY.  DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF GROUND SATURATION
ALREADY IN PLACE...IMMEDIATE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
OCCUR. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
STORMS.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT.  PLEASE REFER TO CURRENT RIVER STATEMENTS FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.  PLEASE REFER TO CURRENT RIVER STATEMENTS
FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY FRIDAY MORNING.

STEFKOVICH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
359 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     HAIL             TOWNLEY                 33.83N 87.43W
03/12/2010  E0.88 INCH       WALKER             AL   PUBLIC

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
413 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     HAIL             LUPTON                  33.94N 87.40W
03/12/2010  E1.75 INCH       WALKER             AL   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
454 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 AM     HAIL             CARBON HILL             33.90N 87.53W
03/12/2010  E2.75 INCH       WALKER             AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

GOLDEN

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