Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
323 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG THE
ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE STATE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN INTENSITY
AFTER SUNSET.

CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE ON THE FAVORABLE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW DOES OPEN UP AND WEAKEN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO OVERALL DIURNAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DECREASE...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. A SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY WILL
PRODUCE A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND HELP
PUSH SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AN
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
GREATER TODAY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO KEPT MENTION OF VCTS
IN AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SITES...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MIGHT REMAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED AT MOST SITES LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DID NOT GO LOWER
THAN MVFR VIS FOR NOW...BUT THIS COULD BE LOWERED WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.

NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WHILE CEILOMETER DATA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  85  65  84  65 /  30  60  30  60  30
ANNISTON    66  85  67  86  66 /  30  60  30  60  30
BIRMINGHAM  68  85  68  85  68 /  30  60  30  60  30
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  66  85  67 /  30  60  30  60  30
CALERA      66  85  66  84  67 /  30  60  30  60  30
AUBURN      63  85  63  84  65 /  30  60  30  60  30
MONTGOMERY  68  86  67  86  68 /  30  60  30  60  30
TROY        66  87  67  85  66 /  30  60  30  60  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-291653-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1153 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CARROLLTON..TO CALERA...TO ROANOKE. THE MAIN THREATS IN THIS AREA
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM NOON TO 8 PM.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL AGAIN BE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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