Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL LOW IS VERY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG THE
ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE STATE LINE.  THE LOW IS MOVING SOUTH AND DOES
CONTAIN A POCKET OF COLDER AIR (-12C @ 500MB).  THIS IS THE REASON
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NORTH ALABAMA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STORM MOTION VECTORS
ARE SMALL AND ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS. SBCAPES ARE
ALREADY NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-20 SO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 AND RAISED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
GREATER TODAY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO KEPT MENTION OF VCTS
IN AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SITES...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MIGHT REMAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED AT MOST SITES LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DID NOT GO LOWER
THAN MVFR VIS FOR NOW...BUT THIS COULD BE LOWERED WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.

NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WHILE CEILOMETER DATA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
144 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

ALZ027-281915-
TALLADEGA-
144 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR TALLADEGA COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 142 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR TALLADEGA. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

61

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
156 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

ALZ020-281930-
CHEROKEE-
156 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 151 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAVE SPRING...OR 10 MILES WEST OF
CEDARTOWN...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

61

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