Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL LOW IS VERY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG THE
ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE STATE LINE.  THE LOW IS MOVING SOUTH AND DOES
CONTAIN A POCKET OF COLDER AIR (-12C @ 500MB).  THIS IS THE REASON
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NORTH ALABAMA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STORM MOTION VECTORS
ARE SMALL AND ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS. SBCAPES ARE
ALREADY NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-20 SO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 AND RAISED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
GREATER TODAY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO KEPT MENTION OF VCTS
IN AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SITES...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MIGHT REMAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED AT MOST SITES LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DID NOT GO LOWER
THAN MVFR VIS FOR NOW...BUT THIS COULD BE LOWERED WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.

NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WHILE CEILOMETER DATA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-291653-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1153 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CARROLLTON..TO CALERA...TO ROANOKE. THE MAIN THREATS IN THIS AREA
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM NOON TO 8 PM.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL AGAIN BE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
156 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

ALZ020-281930-
CHEROKEE-
156 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 151 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAVE SPRING...OR 10 MILES WEST OF
CEDARTOWN...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

61

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
206 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

ALZ013-281930-
FAYETTE-
206 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 204 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BERRY...OR 12 MILES EAST OF FAYETTE...MOVING SOUTH
AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

61

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

ALZ020-282000-
CHEROKEE-
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 227 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF PIEDMONT...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA.

61

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