Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
216 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF A
WARM FRONT MILWAUKEE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF THE TWIN
CITIES AND THEN WESTWARD TO WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ATMOSPHERE
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME UNSTABLE DESPITE THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2000 AND
4000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EVEN GREATER INSTABILITIES LIE ACROSS EASTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS IS
PRODUCING MEAN LAYER CAPES IN THE EXCESS OF 5500 J/KG AND THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING THIS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO OUR
AREA. DOPPLER RADARS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
PAGE IS INDICATING THAT THE CAP IS ERODING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA...AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE IS
CONCERN THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND WITH AMPLE SHEAR THEY WILL EVOLVE QUICKLY
INTO SUPERCELLS. THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER AND 0-1 KM
HELICITY HAS BEEN QUICKLY INCREASING NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.
AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
TORNADOES. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A DERECHO WHICH WILL RACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
THE MESO HIGH GENERATED FROM THE COLD POOL LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ANY RESIDUAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH AND EAST OF AN
OELWEIN IOWA TO WISCONSIN DELLS LINE. AS A RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WERE LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FOR OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...THE MIXED LAYER CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 3000 TO
4000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK TO
MODERATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THIS...A SMALL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY WAS
ADDED TO THE GRIDS. BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ARE NOT THAT
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR AREA...SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THIS
SAID...THERE WILL BE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPER CELLS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND
IT DOES LOOK FEASIBLE THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE INTO A LINE IN RESPONSE TO THE INDIVIDUAL COLD POOLS
CONGEALING TOGETHER AND THE SHORT WAVE ADDING FURTHER ORGANIZATION
INTO A LINE. WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT BOTH 850 AND 700 MB...THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THIS LINE MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...SPC/S
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD APPEARS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE 14.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM AREA. DUE TO THIS
CONSISTENCY...THERE WAS SOME TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR SUNDAY.
DURING THE MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD RANGE FROM
20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE WAS LINGERING
20 PERCENT PROBABILITY LEFT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FROM
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS A
BROAD 500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE 14.00Z GFS
BUILDS THE 500 MB HEIGHTS FASTER INTO THE REGION THAN THE 14.00Z
ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT PUSHES THE WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY KEPT
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONAL
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRANSITIONING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF...THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE TRENDED TOWARD
IT. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKING VERY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA... NORTHEAST IOWA...AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF WISCONSIN. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE KRST BETWEEN
14.21Z AND 14.22Z...AND THROUGH KLSE BETWEEN 14.22Z AND 14.23Z.
THIS LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL THAT THEY COULD PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING
WINDS. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH 15.06Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ032-WIZ033-
     WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-
     MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-
     IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
759 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ041>044-053>055-
061-151100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-FAYETTE-FILLMORE-
FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-
OLMSTED-RICHLAND-VERNON-WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
759 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...ROUGHLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA....AND INTO WISCONSIN SOUTH
OF I-90. A COLD FRONT...WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR BEHIND...IS
RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST INTO THAT UNSTABLE AIR...CAUSING ANOTHER LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...
WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL A THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 1 AM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH ABOUT 10
PM...ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH THROUGH 11 PM...AND THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
THE FINAL LINE OF STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT ENDS THE THREAT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...DISPATCH CENTERS...AND POWER COMPANY MANAGERS
WILL WANT TO ENSURE STAFFING LEVELS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WITHIN THE COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THE
REGION. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
MAKE PREPARATIONS.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

WIZ017-029-032>034-151100-
BUFFALO-CLARK-JACKSON-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-
759 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT...WITH DRY
AND STABLE AIR BEHIND...IS RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST INTO THAT
UNSTABLE AIR...CAUSING ANOTHER LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...
WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...
LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
MAKE PREPARATIONS.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

MW/BAUMGARDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1043 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW ADAMS              43.90N 89.89W
07/14/2010  E60 MPH          ADAMS              WI   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            REPORTED AT CASTLE ROCK COUNTY PARK CAMPRGROUND

&&

DAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1043 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

IAZ011-029-030-WIZ043-044-054-055-061-150445-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-GRANT-JUNEAU-RICHLAND-
1043 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING CLAYTON...CRAWFORD...
FAYETTE...GRANT...AND RICHLAND COUNTIES...

AT 1035 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WISCONSIN DELLS TO VIROQUA...TO WAUKON IOWA...TO EAST OF
CHARLES CITY. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR INCLUDE...
RICHLAND CENTER...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...MONONA AND WEST UNION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. MOVE INDOORS AND IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED...TAKE ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

BAUMGARDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1050 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 S ADAMS               43.87N 89.82W
07/14/2010  M64.00 MPH       ADAMS              WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SHEA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1124 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

WIZ053-150500-
VERNON-
1124 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN VERNON COUNTY...

AT 1121 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5
MILES NORTH OF STODDARD TO DE SOTO...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
RUNGE HOLLOW...BUD...FARGO...JERSEY VALLEY COUNTY PARK...WESTBY AND
LIBERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

AJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1126 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

IAZ011-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-150530-
ALLAMAKEE-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-GRANT-RICHLAND-
1126 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
CLAYTON...CRAWFORD...FAYETTE...AND GRANT COUNTIES...

AT 1121 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM OELWEIN TO RICHLAND CENTER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS. SPORADIC STORMS HAVE HAD HIGHER GUSTS
AND MAY NEED A WARNING AS THEY APPROACH.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
JOY HOLLOW...OAK RIDGE...MOUNT STERLING...SENECA...JOY SPRINGS COUNTY
PARK...GAYS MILLS...STRAWBERRY POINT AND BELL CENTER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

BAUMGARDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1134 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S WESTBY              43.64N 90.86W
07/14/2010  E60 MPH          VERNON             WI   AMATEUR RADIO

1124 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VIROQUA                 43.56N 90.89W
07/14/2010                   VERNON             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DAMAGE TO SHED AT SHERIFF DEPARTMENT. TREES DOWN IN TOWN
            AS WELL.

&&

SHEA