Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS La Crosse, WI

345 
WWUS53 KARX 150344
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1044 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

WIC001-057-103-123-150400-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-100715T0400Z/
JUNEAU WI-ADAMS WI-VERNON WI-RICHLAND WI-
1044 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
RICHLAND...NORTHEASTERN VERNON...ADAMS AND SOUTHEASTERN JUNEAU
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED WINDS OF 55 TO 60 MPH FROM THE 
CASTLE ROCK CAMPGROUND TO VOLK FIELD AND NEAR WESTBY WITH A LINE OF 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AT 1040 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEW ROME TO
MAUSTON TO LA FARGE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THESE STORMS CAN PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES...AND CAN DO SO QUICKLY.
MOVE INTO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR
BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4364 8960 4364 9027 4363 9030 4357 9031
      4356 9019 4345 9019 4359 9083 4373 9045
      4373 9031 4376 9031 4380 9012 4425 8991
      4425 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 278DEG 49KT 4421 8971 4376 8989
          4352 9046
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

AJ

626 
WWUS53 KARX 150400
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

WIC001-057-103-123-150409-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-100715T0400Z/
JUNEAU WI-ADAMS WI-VERNON WI-RICHLAND WI-
1100 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN RICHLAND...
NORTHEASTERN VERNON...ADAMS AND SOUTHEASTERN JUNEAU COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 1100 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...STORMS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA MAY PRODUCE 
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING 
THROUGH 1130 PM CDT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4364 8960 4364 9027 4363 9030 4357 9031
      4356 9019 4345 9019 4359 9083 4373 9045
      4373 9031 4376 9031 4380 9012 4425 8991
      4425 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0359Z 278DEG 49KT 4417 8940 4372 8959
          4349 9017

$$

AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
216 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF A
WARM FRONT MILWAUKEE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF THE TWIN
CITIES AND THEN WESTWARD TO WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ATMOSPHERE
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME UNSTABLE DESPITE THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2000 AND
4000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EVEN GREATER INSTABILITIES LIE ACROSS EASTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS IS
PRODUCING MEAN LAYER CAPES IN THE EXCESS OF 5500 J/KG AND THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING THIS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO OUR
AREA. DOPPLER RADARS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
PAGE IS INDICATING THAT THE CAP IS ERODING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA...AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE IS
CONCERN THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND WITH AMPLE SHEAR THEY WILL EVOLVE QUICKLY
INTO SUPERCELLS. THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER AND 0-1 KM
HELICITY HAS BEEN QUICKLY INCREASING NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.
AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
TORNADOES. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A DERECHO WHICH WILL RACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
THE MESO HIGH GENERATED FROM THE COLD POOL LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ANY RESIDUAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH AND EAST OF AN
OELWEIN IOWA TO WISCONSIN DELLS LINE. AS A RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WERE LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FOR OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...THE MIXED LAYER CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 3000 TO
4000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK TO
MODERATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THIS...A SMALL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY WAS
ADDED TO THE GRIDS. BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ARE NOT THAT
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR AREA...SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THIS
SAID...THERE WILL BE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPER CELLS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND
IT DOES LOOK FEASIBLE THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE INTO A LINE IN RESPONSE TO THE INDIVIDUAL COLD POOLS
CONGEALING TOGETHER AND THE SHORT WAVE ADDING FURTHER ORGANIZATION
INTO A LINE. WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT BOTH 850 AND 700 MB...THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THIS LINE MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...SPC/S
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD APPEARS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE 14.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM AREA. DUE TO THIS
CONSISTENCY...THERE WAS SOME TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR SUNDAY.
DURING THE MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD RANGE FROM
20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE WAS LINGERING
20 PERCENT PROBABILITY LEFT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FROM
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS A
BROAD 500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE 14.00Z GFS
BUILDS THE 500 MB HEIGHTS FASTER INTO THE REGION THAN THE 14.00Z
ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT PUSHES THE WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY KEPT
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONAL
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRANSITIONING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF...THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE TRENDED TOWARD
IT. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKING VERY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA... NORTHEAST IOWA...AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF WISCONSIN. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE KRST BETWEEN
14.21Z AND 14.22Z...AND THROUGH KLSE BETWEEN 14.22Z AND 14.23Z.
THIS LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL THAT THEY COULD PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING
WINDS. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH 15.06Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ032-WIZ033-
     WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-
     MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-
     IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
759 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ041>044-053>055-
061-151100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-FAYETTE-FILLMORE-
FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-
OLMSTED-RICHLAND-VERNON-WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
759 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...ROUGHLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA....AND INTO WISCONSIN SOUTH
OF I-90. A COLD FRONT...WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR BEHIND...IS
RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST INTO THAT UNSTABLE AIR...CAUSING ANOTHER LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...
WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL A THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 1 AM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH ABOUT 10
PM...ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH THROUGH 11 PM...AND THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
THE FINAL LINE OF STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT ENDS THE THREAT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...DISPATCH CENTERS...AND POWER COMPANY MANAGERS
WILL WANT TO ENSURE STAFFING LEVELS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WITHIN THE COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THE
REGION. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
MAKE PREPARATIONS.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

WIZ017-029-032>034-151100-
BUFFALO-CLARK-JACKSON-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-
759 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT...WITH DRY
AND STABLE AIR BEHIND...IS RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST INTO THAT
UNSTABLE AIR...CAUSING ANOTHER LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...
WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...
LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
MAKE PREPARATIONS.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

MW/BAUMGARDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1005 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W ST JOSEPH           43.79N 91.07W
07/14/2010  E50 MPH          LA CROSSE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0954 PM     FLOOD            ARCADIA                 44.25N 91.49W
07/14/2010                   TREMPEALEAU        WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOME STREET FLOODING CLOSING SOME STREETS. A TOTAL OF 3.5
            INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY.

&&

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1007 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     TSTM WND GST     TOMAH                   43.99N 90.50W
07/14/2010  E55 MPH          MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAIN AND STREET FLOODING

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1013 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND GST     CASHTON                 43.74N 90.78W
07/14/2010  E45 MPH          MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1019 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N CATARACT            44.14N 90.83W
07/14/2010                   MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 27 AND ALPHA AVE

1017 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W WARRENS             44.13N 90.52W
07/14/2010                   MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DEEP WATER THROUGH MUCH OF JELLYSTONE CAMPGROUND

1017 PM     HEAVY RAIN       TOMAH                   43.99N 90.50W
07/14/2010  M6.50 INCH       MONROE             WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1022 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W WESTBY              43.65N 90.88W
07/14/2010  E50 MPH          VERNON             WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1030 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND GST     ONTARIO                 43.72N 90.59W
07/14/2010  E50 MPH          VERNON             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

04