River Flood Warning 28, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
216 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF A
WARM FRONT MILWAUKEE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF THE TWIN
CITIES AND THEN WESTWARD TO WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ATMOSPHERE
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME UNSTABLE DESPITE THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2000 AND
4000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EVEN GREATER INSTABILITIES LIE ACROSS EASTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS IS
PRODUCING MEAN LAYER CAPES IN THE EXCESS OF 5500 J/KG AND THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING THIS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO OUR
AREA. DOPPLER RADARS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
PAGE IS INDICATING THAT THE CAP IS ERODING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA...AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE IS
CONCERN THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND WITH AMPLE SHEAR THEY WILL EVOLVE QUICKLY
INTO SUPERCELLS. THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER AND 0-1 KM
HELICITY HAS BEEN QUICKLY INCREASING NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.
AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
TORNADOES. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A DERECHO WHICH WILL RACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
THE MESO HIGH GENERATED FROM THE COLD POOL LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ANY RESIDUAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH AND EAST OF AN
OELWEIN IOWA TO WISCONSIN DELLS LINE. AS A RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WERE LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FOR OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...THE MIXED LAYER CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 3000 TO
4000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK TO
MODERATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THIS...A SMALL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY WAS
ADDED TO THE GRIDS. BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ARE NOT THAT
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR AREA...SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THIS
SAID...THERE WILL BE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPER CELLS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND
IT DOES LOOK FEASIBLE THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE INTO A LINE IN RESPONSE TO THE INDIVIDUAL COLD POOLS
CONGEALING TOGETHER AND THE SHORT WAVE ADDING FURTHER ORGANIZATION
INTO A LINE. WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT BOTH 850 AND 700 MB...THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THIS LINE MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...SPC/S
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD APPEARS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE 14.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM AREA. DUE TO THIS
CONSISTENCY...THERE WAS SOME TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR SUNDAY.
DURING THE MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD RANGE FROM
20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE WAS LINGERING
20 PERCENT PROBABILITY LEFT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FROM
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS A
BROAD 500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE 14.00Z GFS
BUILDS THE 500 MB HEIGHTS FASTER INTO THE REGION THAN THE 14.00Z
ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT PUSHES THE WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY KEPT
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONAL
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRANSITIONING EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF...THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE TRENDED TOWARD
IT. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKING VERY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA... NORTHEAST IOWA...AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF WISCONSIN. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE KRST BETWEEN
14.21Z AND 14.22Z...AND THROUGH KLSE BETWEEN 14.22Z AND 14.23Z.
THIS LINE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL THAT THEY COULD PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING
WINDS. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH 15.06Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ032-WIZ033-
     WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-
     MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-
     IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

IAZ011-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-151100-
ALLAMAKEE-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-GRANT-RICHLAND-
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER PART OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THESE AREAS BY
2 AM AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES IS LIKELY TOO. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THE
REGION. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY NOT OCCUR TONIGHT DUE TO A MORE
ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE. A HUGE THANK YOU TO THOSE WHO
PROVIDED REPORTS WEDNESDAY. WE CANT DO IT WITHOUT YOU.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ008>010-018-019-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-
053-151100-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-DODGE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-HOUSTON-HOWARD-
JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-TAYLOR-
TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST AND ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE SKIES CLEAR. LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. A HUGE THANK YOU TO
THOSE WHO PROVIDED REPORTS WEDNESDAY. WE CANT DO IT WITHOUT YOU.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

MW/BAUMGARDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1202 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W WARRENS             44.13N 90.54W
07/14/2010                   MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROAD DAMAGED NEAR HIGHWAY 12 AND COUNTY ROAD EW.

1201 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW WARRENS            44.09N 90.56W
07/15/2010  M7.00 INCH       MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FOR ALL OF JULY 14TH

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1209 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CATARACT                44.09N 90.83W
07/15/2010  M4.62 INCH       MONROE             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1227 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

IAZ030-WIZ054-055-061-150630-
CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-GRANT-RICHLAND-
1227 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF CRAWFORD...CLAYTON
AND GRANT COUNTIES...

AT 1225 AM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOLDIERS GROVE TO STEUBEN...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN AND ELKADER IOWA...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS. SPORADIC STORMS HAVE HAD HIGHER GUSTS
AND MAY NEED A WARNING AS THEY APPROACH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
MUSCODA...BOSCOBEL...FENNIMORE...BAGLEY...GUTTENBERG

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN.

RRS

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