Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
329 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL FORCE A SHORTER AFD THAN
NORMAL. STORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS
SITUATED FROM AROUND TUCUMCARI TO BUSHLAND THEN NORTH TO
BORGER...SPEARMAN AND TOWARD DODGE CITY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER
LOW HAS DRIFTED TO THE EAST PROVIDING A STRONG WIND COMPONENT ALOFT
ALONG WITH A MORE SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTATION. SO THIS WILL FAVOR
TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE NORTH SOUTH PORTION OF THE FRONT. ONCE
AGAIN...HEAVY RAIN IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT AND WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES. SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORT SUPERCEL STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...SO
ISOLD TORNADOES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DOWNBURST WINDS.

STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING AND MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA...SO LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ANY SEVERE
THREAT MONDAY. FAVORED THE COOLER GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
BASED ON THE FRONTAL POSITION AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND STORMS.

STATIONARY FRONT MAY TRY TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH OF TUESDAY WHILE THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN KEPT THE DRY
FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A CAVEAT HOWEVER...AS THE DRYLINE SHOULD
REFORM ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT DUE TO THE RIDGE...ITS
POSSIBLE ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO REACH THE PANHANDLES. SO IF THE RIDGE HOLDS...THE DRY FORECAST MAY
PAN OUT.

JJB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND A FRONT SHOULD KEEP
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
THE RH VALUES TO FALL ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

JJB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                60  77  60  83  64 /  30  30  50  20  20
BEAVER OK                  59  77  59  84  65 /  70  30  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              53  73  55  83  60 /  40  20  30  20  20
BORGER TX                  60  79  62  85  66 /  40  30  40  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              59  79  60  84  63 /  30  30  40  20  20
CANYON TX                  61  80  61  87  63 /  30  30  50  20  20
CLARENDON TX               68  81  63  85  66 /  30  40  60  20  20
DALHART TX                 55  75  56  84  59 /  30  20  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  57  74  59  85  63 /  60  20  30  20  20
HEREFORD TX                59  80  61  85  62 /  20  30  40  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                64  79  61  86  66 /  60  30  40  20  20
PAMPA TX                   61  75  61  83  64 /  40  30  50  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                70  85  65  87  67 /  30  40  60  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              72  86  66  88  67 /  30  40  60  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HANSFORD...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

&&

07/14

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
122 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-141200-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
122 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING. HANSFORD COUNTY HAD 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL SO FAR SO ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THIS AREA WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON PALO DURO
CREEK NEAR SPEARMAN AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT FOR THE NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE...BOATERS ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION TODAY. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
445 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W SLAPOUT             36.62N 100.23W
06/13/2010  M62 MPH          BEAVER             OK   STORM CHASER

            VORTEX2 PROBE SITUATED ON US 270 WEST OF SLAPOUT WITH
            FREQUENT ONGOING GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000690

BROST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
457 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             18 S PERRYTON           36.13N 100.80W
06/13/2010  E1.75 INCH       OCHILTREE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000691

SMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
503 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     HAIL             4 W DARROUZETT          36.45N 100.40W
06/13/2010  E1.75 INCH       LIPSCOMB           TX   PUBLIC

            HAIL ENDED JUST BEFORE 5 PM LOCAL TIME.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000692

BROST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
511 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             WOLF CREEK PARK         36.21N 100.65W
06/13/2010  E2.75 INCH       OCHILTREE          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL IS ONGOING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000693

BROST

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