Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1024 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.UPDATE...
STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED
IN AREAL COVERAGE. THE 00Z AMA SOUNDING INDICATES AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WHICH WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL WILL AID TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. WENT AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE. ALSO INCREASED QPF AS REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS AND MEDIA HAVE
INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL HAVE FALLEN. NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM FOR MOST OF THE AMA CWA
AND UPDATED PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010/

AVIATION...
0000 UTC TAFS...QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STORMS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING -TSRA AT KDHT/KGUY TROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z BUT
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR WITH THESE STORMS. CURRENT VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD IN EASTERN NM/WEST
TX. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG SO WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING IN THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CB REMARKS AT KAMA FROM 02Z AS
TIMING OF WHEN ANY STORM WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL LOOKS UNCERTAIN.
BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...TAF FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT. THE GFS WANTS TO LIFT THE FRONT TO THE NORTH
WHILE THE NAM PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
FOR NOW DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE 00Z MODEL RUNS FOR BETTER CLARIFICATION IN THIS SCENARIO.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LED TO DETERIORATING CIGS OVERNIGHT.
HAVE AN OVC MVFR DECK IN BUT I MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS.
FURTHER AMENDMENTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT DISCUSSION TODAY GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION. OBVIOUSLY SEVERE
POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. MOST FAVORED AREA ALONG STATIONARY FRONT WHICH
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. ALSO EXPECTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES SHOULD INCREASE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE WARM
FRONT SURGES BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. GIVE HOW POORLY THE GFS HAS
HANDLED RECENT COLD FRONTS...DECIDED TO TREND CLOSE TO THE NAM
SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
THE AFTERNOON. SO COOLED OFF TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND
INCREASED POPS. ONCE AGAIN...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXISTS THROUGH
MONDAY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SO WENT EVEN COOLER ON MONDAY AND KEPT POPS IN
THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE IN EFFECT.

KEPT MENTION OF POPS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT THEN CONTINUED THE ONGOING
SUB MENTIONABLE POP FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON A SPECIFIC TIME TO
INSERT PRECIP.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. MOIST AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

99/05

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-131100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY BE SEVERE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION TODAY. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED TOMORROW AND MONDAY.

WYNNE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1044 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

TXZ011-016-130415-
OLDHAM TX-DEAF SMITH TX-
1044 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1115 PM CDT FOR DEAF SMITH AND
OLDHAM COUNTIES.

AT 1039 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF SIMMS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1058 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             SPEARMAN                36.20N 101.19W
06/12/2010  E1.00 INCH       HANSFORD           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000675

GOEHRING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1115 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

TXZ016-130445-
DEAF SMITH TX-
1115 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1145 PM CDT FOR DEAF SMITH COUNTY.

AT 1111 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES WEST OF HEREFORD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SJOHNSON