Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
648 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.AVIATION...
0000 UTC TAFS...QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STORMS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING -TSRA AT KDHT/KGUY TROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z BUT
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR WITH THESE STORMS. CURRENT VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD IN EASTERN NM/WEST
TX. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG SO WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING IN THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CB REMARKS AT KAMA FROM 02Z AS
TIMING OF WHEN ANY STORM WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL LOOKS UNCERTAIN.
BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...TAF FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT. THE GFS WANTS TO LIFT THE FRONT TO THE NORTH
WHILE THE NAM PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
FOR NOW DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE 00Z MODEL RUNS FOR BETTER CLARIFICATION IN THIS SCENARIO.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LED TO DETERIORATING CIGS OVERNIGHT.
HAVE AN OVC MVFR DECK IN BUT I MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS.
FURTHER AMENDMENTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT DISCUSSION TODAY GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION. OBVIOUSLY SEVERE
POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. MOST FAVORED AREA ALONG STATIONARY FRONT WHICH
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. ALSO EXPECTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES SHOULD INCREASE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE WARM
FRONT SURGES BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. GIVE HOW POORLY THE GFS HAS
HANDLED RECENT COLD FRONTS...DECIDED TO TREND CLOSE TO THE NAM
SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
THE AFTERNOON. SO COOLED OFF TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND
INCREASED POPS. ONCE AGAIN...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXISTS THROUGH
MONDAY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SO WENT EVEN COOLER ON MONDAY AND KEPT POPS IN
THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE IN EFFECT.

KEPT MENTION OF POPS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT THEN CONTINUED THE ONGOING
SUB MENTIONABLE POP FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON A SPECIFIC TIME TO
INSERT PRECIP.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. MOIST AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

99/05

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-131100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY BE SEVERE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION TODAY. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED TOMORROW AND MONDAY.

WYNNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             5 E HARTLEY             35.89N 102.31W
06/12/2010  E1.00 INCH       HARTLEY            TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000643

SMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             5 E HARTLEY             35.89N 102.31W
06/12/2010  E1.25 INCH       HARTLEY            TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000644

SMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
640 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TSTM WND GST     SPEARMAN                36.20N 101.19W
06/12/2010  E60 MPH          HANSFORD           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN ADDITION TO THE 60 MPH WINDS

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000645

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
641 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     HAIL             SPEARMAN                36.20N 101.19W
06/12/2010  E0.75 INCH       HANSFORD           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000646

JOHNSON

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>