Storm Warning 36, NWS Anchorage, AK

474 
FZAK51 PAFC 091246
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A 965 MB LOW MOVES TO 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY LATE
WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-100300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-100300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-100300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-100300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-100300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT
EXCEPT 14 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-100300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-100300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-100300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO
4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-100300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATION ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
SEEM REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE TROUBLE WITH
CURRENT MULTI-LOW COMPLEX PATTERN...THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM FOR THE
TIME BEING TO BE THE BEST CHOICE IN THE SHORT TERM.

.UPPER LEVELS...
LONG WAVE EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE MAINLAND MOVES EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON MOVES INTO
WESTERN CANADA TUE. MAIN LOW COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BROADENS
WITH SEVERAL SMALLER FEATURES EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/
EASTERN BERING SEA TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY WED EVENING. TRACKING
CURRENT AND DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...MESO LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
SOUTH OF THE AK PEN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
TONIGHT. STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BRING STORMS TO
GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN KODIAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EASTERN KENAI
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER KODIAK EARLY TUE MORNING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES NORTH. SNOW OVER KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MIX WITH
RAIN THIS EVENING AND GO ALL RAIN TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TUE WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT ENTERING THE
GULF. PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO START AS SNOW OVER THE GULF THEN SHOULD
MIX WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON TUE. BLIZZARD POTENTIAL INLAND ZONE
125 IS REASONABLE TONIGHT AS STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY FALLING
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TUE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM. WARMING
WILL CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

.WEST...
STRONG LOW NEAR DUTCH THIS AFTERNOON ROTATES NORTH AND WEST AROUND
PATTERN COMPLEX SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS. ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE AK PEN MOVES INTO SW ALASKA TONIGHT. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WITH
THESE FEATURES IS PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE PRIBILOFS AND
WILL BRING THE SAME TO SW ALASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SECONDARY FEATURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AK
PEN THIS AFTERNOON STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA
TUE AFTERNOON. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD END OVER THE BRISTOL BAY
ZONE TUE AS TEMPS WARM. COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA...SO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY HOLD THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS THE LARGE LOW COMPLEX SLOWLY BREAKS INTO
MULTIPLE LOWS...WAVES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS
WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND EVEN INTO
COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 175 179
         GALE 125 127 128 129 140 165 172 180 176 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 129 160 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC FEB 10