Gale Warning 96, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATION ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
SEEM REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE TROUBLE WITH
CURRENT MULTI-LOW COMPLEX PATTERN...THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM FOR THE
TIME BEING TO BE THE BEST CHOICE IN THE SHORT TERM.

.UPPER LEVELS...
LONG WAVE EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE MAINLAND MOVES EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON MOVES INTO
WESTERN CANADA TUE. MAIN LOW COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BROADENS
WITH SEVERAL SMALLER FEATURES EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/
EASTERN BERING SEA TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY WED EVENING. TRACKING
CURRENT AND DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...MESO LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
SOUTH OF THE AK PEN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
TONIGHT. STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BRING STORMS TO
GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN KODIAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EASTERN KENAI
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER KODIAK EARLY TUE MORNING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES NORTH. SNOW OVER KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MIX WITH
RAIN THIS EVENING AND GO ALL RAIN TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TUE WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT ENTERING THE
GULF. PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO START AS SNOW OVER THE GULF THEN SHOULD
MIX WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON TUE. BLIZZARD POTENTIAL INLAND ZONE
125 IS REASONABLE TONIGHT AS STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY FALLING
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TUE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM. WARMING
WILL CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

.WEST...
STRONG LOW NEAR DUTCH THIS AFTERNOON ROTATES NORTH AND WEST AROUND
PATTERN COMPLEX SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS. ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE AK PEN MOVES INTO SW ALASKA TONIGHT. SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WITH
THESE FEATURES IS PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE PRIBILOFS AND
WILL BRING THE SAME TO SW ALASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SECONDARY FEATURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AK
PEN THIS AFTERNOON STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA
TUE AFTERNOON. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD END OVER THE BRISTOL BAY
ZONE TUE AS TEMPS WARM. COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA...SO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY HOLD THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS THE LARGE LOW COMPLEX SLOWLY BREAKS INTO
MULTIPLE LOWS...WAVES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS
WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND EVEN INTO
COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 175 179
         GALE 125 127 128 129 140 165 172 180 176 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 129 160 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC FEB 10