Storm Warning 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

235 
FZAK62 PAFC 091237
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-100300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 959 MB LOW NEAR 49N 170W SLOWLY WEAKENS TO 962 MB NEAR DUTCH HARBOR
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS TO 973 MB NEAR SAINT PAUL ISLAND LATE
WED NIGHT. A 962 MB LOW NEAR 54N 171W WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BE
ABSORBED BY THE FIRST LOW THIS EVENING.
$$

PKZ411-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE WIND 15 KT E OF 174W.
SEAS 23 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT S WIND 15 KT SOUTH OF 56N. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 56N. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST MON FEB 8 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IS GENERATING AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
LINKED TO A STRONGER 997 MB LOW MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING NEAR
YAKUTAT. BOTH FEATURES ARE RAPIDLY WEAKENING. OUT WEST...A 200 KT JET
STREAK IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC IS REINFORCING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA...AND IS SUPPORTING A STRONG 951 MB LOW NEAR THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT
STORM FORCE WINDS AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT. BETWEEN THE REMNANT GULF LOW AND THE
LARGE STORM OUT WEST...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THIS MORNING. ON THE
LARGE SCALE THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BRINGING THE LARGE
LOW COMPLEX OUT WEST SLOWLY EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN
BERING BY MIDWEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN NOW EACH MODEL HAS A SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT PATTERN OF SURFACE LOWS ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN LOW
POSITION IN THE WEST. IN FACT...COMPARING MODELS TO THE MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS THAT NONE OF THE MODELS INITIALIZED THE WAVE
SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR PROPERLY. THESE DISCREPANCIES WILL HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON WATCH/WARNING DECISIONS THIS MORNING...AS WIND DIRECTION
CHANGES AND TIMING WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL/DURATION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. SINCE NO
ONE MODEL RISES ABOVE THE REST...WILL OPT FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION THIS MORNING...BASED LOOSELY ON THE GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A STEADY IMPROVING TREND
TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS IN COOK INLET AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA. THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS TREND WILL BE KODIAK ISLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE
FIRST LOCATION TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM FORCE FRONT CURRENTLY
IN THE BERING. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THERE...BUT QUICKLY
TURN TO RAIN MONDAY EVENING AS WARM AIR ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT
NORTHWARD. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE PORTAGE VALLEY AND
EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM...WHERE VERY POOR CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE WESTERN KENAI UP TO THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DOWNSLOPED FOR THIS EVENT...WITH A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE INITIALLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEFORE THE
DOWNSLOPING REALLY GETS GOING. THE EASTERN KENAI AND WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
EAST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY MID MORNING. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL WARM ENOUGH TO
AVOID BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TODAY...HOWEVER VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS-
NEAR WARNING LEVEL- ARE LIKELY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF BRISTOL BAY ZONE AS WELL AS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WILL NOT BE SO LUCKY...AS COLD AIR ALLOWS PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS
SNOW THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EVENT. WITH PLENTY OF WIND AROUND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...AND WILL UPGRADE BOTH WATCHES TO
WARNINGS WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. EASTERN SECTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WARNING LEVEL WINDS AS
FUNNELING OCCURS THROUGH THE USUAL GAPS IN THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...REMOVING THE THREAT OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THERE.
HOWEVER...VERY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. COLDER AIR NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER WEST...THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL EXPERIENCE A LONG PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS COLD AIR IS
PULLED DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE COMPLEX LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS THE LARGE LOW COMPLEX SLOWLY BREAKS INTO
MULTIPLE LOWS...WAVES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS
WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND EVEN INTO
COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155 161 195
MARINE...STORM 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 175 179
         GALE 120 125 138 140 172 176 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 129 160 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD FEB 10