Storm Warning 219, NWS Anchorage, AK

390 
FZAK51 PAFC 011255 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
454 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

UPDATED ZONE 120

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020000-
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 951 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES TO 130 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND WEAKENS TO 963 MB MON AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVES INLAND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AT 982 MB TUE MORNING. A
1002 MB LOW DEVELOPS 220 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK TUE AFTERNOON AND
MOVES TO 60 NM EAST OF KODIAK BY WED MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-020000-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
454 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-020000-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-020000-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-020000-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-020000-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 22 FT
EXCEPT 12 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT W 25 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
16 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-020000-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-020000-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-020000-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-020000-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. BEYOND THIS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER MOVING INTO THE GULF ON WED AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. AVAILABLE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TEND TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...MODEL
TRACK AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...SO WILL MAKE SLIGHT BLEND WED
AFTERNOON AND LEAVE EXTENDED GRIDS AS IS UNTIL NEXT RUN.

.ANALYSIS...

UPPER LEVELS
OLD STACKED LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA LATE MON NIGHT. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC DIGS THE LONG WAVE SOUTH ALONG 150-160W TUE. A
SECONDARY CENTER FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THEN MOVES RAPIDLY
NORTH TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF WED. WARM ADVECTION OUT WEST BUILDS THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA MON. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA WED. A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WAVE MOVES TO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA ON WED.

SURFACE...A 940S STACKED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA EARLY TUE MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND HAS STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR ITS LEADING EDGE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT SPREADS CLOUDS
AND MAYBE A LITTLE SNOW TO WESTERN ALASKA MON. A WEAK 980S LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AK PEN TONIGHT
AND WEAKENS. THE NEXT LOW CENTER TO IMPACT THE GULF DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AT THE BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TUE AND HEADS TO
THE NORTH GULF ON WED. THIS CENTER IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND TIMING AND
INTENSITY ARE STILL ISSUES. HOWEVER...THIS CENTER WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH AND BRING STORMS/GALES INTO THE GULF WATERS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
EXPECT STORMS THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT AS STORM TRACKS NORTH. WINDS
LIKELY TO DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN GULF SOME MON AS FRONT MOVES WEST
AND NORTH...HOWEVER COULD SEE STORMS CONTINUING INTO MON AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AS STACKED LOW CENTER TRACKS NORTH.
BUILDING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH APPROACHING FRONT AND LOW CENTER
LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. SHOULD SEE GENERALLY RAIN ALONG THE GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MIXED INLAND AREAS...EXCEPT THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN WITH WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WARMER MON. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH MON
NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS. PRECIPITATION LIKELY
TO SPREAD INLAND FURTHER TUE AS LOW CENTER MOVES NW ACROSS THE KENAI
PEN...MAY SEE A QUICK SHOT AT SNOW AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NW INTO THE
INTERIOR. NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF WED LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND WINDS TO THE GULF.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
LOCAL BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS TO HOLD THROUGH MON. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW MON AS WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE AREA.

AK PEN/AK PEN...BERING SEA...
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL HOLD THROUGH
MON...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. WINDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND EAST BERING SEA TUE NIGHT AND WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE AND WED WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WEATHER FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM...120 130
         GALE...125 129 132 138 140 150 155 172 175 176 180 185
              AND 179.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 10