Gale Warning 910, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Nov 1, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)

Expired

Nov 1, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

687 
FZAK52 PAFC 011144
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020000-
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
BERING THROUGH WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
BERING MON THEN TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUE. A WEATHER FRONT
REACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE MORNING AND MOVES TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-020000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-020000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-020000-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-020000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-020000-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-020000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT BERING SIDE...9 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT BERING SIDE...9 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-020000-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-020000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-020000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-020000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM SHEMYA
W...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-020000-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...18 FT
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-020000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Oct 31, 2:00 PM AKDT, 14 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. BEYOND THIS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER MOVING INTO THE GULF ON WED AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. AVAILABLE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TEND TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...MODEL
TRACK AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...SO WILL MAKE SLIGHT BLEND WED
AFTERNOON AND LEAVE EXTENDED GRIDS AS IS UNTIL NEXT RUN.

.ANALYSIS...

UPPER LEVELS
OLD STACKED LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA LATE MON NIGHT. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC DIGS THE LONG WAVE SOUTH ALONG 150-160W TUE. A
SECONDARY CENTER FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THEN MOVES RAPIDLY
NORTH TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF WED. WARM ADVECTION OUT WEST BUILDS THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA MON. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA WED. A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WAVE MOVES TO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA ON WED.

SURFACE...A 940S STACKED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA EARLY TUE MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND HAS STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR ITS LEADING EDGE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT SPREADS CLOUDS
AND MAYBE A LITTLE SNOW TO WESTERN ALASKA MON. A WEAK 980S LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AK PEN TONIGHT
AND WEAKENS. THE NEXT LOW CENTER TO IMPACT THE GULF DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AT THE BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TUE AND HEADS TO
THE NORTH GULF ON WED. THIS CENTER IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND TIMING AND
INTENSITY ARE STILL ISSUES. HOWEVER...THIS CENTER WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH AND BRING STORMS/GALES INTO THE GULF WATERS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
EXPECT STORMS THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT AS STORM TRACKS NORTH. WINDS
LIKELY TO DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN GULF SOME MON AS FRONT MOVES WEST
AND NORTH...HOWEVER COULD SEE STORMS CONTINUING INTO MON AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AS STACKED LOW CENTER TRACKS NORTH.
BUILDING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH APPROACHING FRONT AND LOW CENTER
LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. SHOULD SEE GENERALLY RAIN ALONG THE GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MIXED INLAND AREAS...EXCEPT THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN WITH WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WARMER MON. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH MON
NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS. PRECIPITATION LIKELY
TO SPREAD INLAND FURTHER TUE AS LOW CENTER MOVES NW ACROSS THE KENAI
PEN...MAY SEE A QUICK SHOT AT SNOW AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NW INTO THE
INTERIOR. NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF WED LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND WINDS TO THE GULF.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
LOCAL BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS TO HOLD THROUGH MON. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW MON AS WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE AREA.

AK PEN/AK PEN...BERING SEA...
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL HOLD THROUGH
MON...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. WINDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND EAST BERING SEA TUE NIGHT AND WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE AND WED WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WEATHER FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM...120 130
         GALE...125 129 132 138 140 150 155 172 175 176 180 185
              AND 179.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 10

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every gale warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.