Storm Warning 218, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Nov 1, 2010, 1:10 AM AKDT (09:10 UTC)

Expired

Nov 1, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

891 
FZAK51 PAFC 010912 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
110 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

UPDATED ZONE 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011200-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 945 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND MOVES TO 50 NM SOUTH
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND WEAKENS TO 971 MB MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW
THEN MOVES INLAND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ120-011200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
27 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-011200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF 
CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-011200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-011200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-011200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT EXCEPT 12 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 
FT. RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-011200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
110 AM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-011200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 31, 2:00 PM AKDT, 11 hours 10 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SUN OCT 31 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. BEYOND THIS MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING OF
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER MOVING INTO THE GULF ON WED AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. AVAILABLE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TEND TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...MODEL
TRACK AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...SO WILL MAKE SLIGHT BLEND WED
AFTERNOON AND LEAVE EXTENDED GRIDS AS IS UNTIL NEXT RUN.

.ANALYSIS...

UPPER LEVELS
OLD STACKED LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA LATE MON NIGHT. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC DIGS THE LONG WAVE SOUTH ALONG 150-160W TUE. A
SECONDARY CENTER FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THEN MOVES RAPIDLY
NORTH TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF WED. WARM ADVECTION OUT WEST BUILDS THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA MON. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA WED. A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WAVE MOVES TO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA ON WED.

SURFACE...A 940S STACKED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA EARLY TUE MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND HAS STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR ITS LEADING EDGE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT SPREADS CLOUDS
AND MAYBE A LITTLE SNOW TO WESTERN ALASKA MON. A WEAK 980S LOW
CURRENTLY WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AK PEN TONIGHT
AND WEAKENS. THE NEXT LOW CENTER TO IMPACT THE GULF DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AT THE BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TUE AND HEADS TO
THE NORTH GULF ON WED. THIS CENTER IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND TIMING AND
INTENSITY ARE STILL ISSUES. HOWEVER...THIS CENTER WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH AND BRING STORMS/GALES INTO THE GULF WATERS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
EXPECT STORMS THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT AS STORM TRACKS NORTH. WINDS
LIKELY TO DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN GULF SOME MON AS FRONT MOVES WEST
AND NORTH...HOWEVER COULD SEE STORMS CONTINUING INTO MON AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AS STACKED LOW CENTER TRACKS NORTH.
BUILDING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH APPROACHING FRONT AND LOW CENTER
LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. SHOULD SEE GENERALLY RAIN ALONG THE GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MIXED INLAND AREAS...EXCEPT THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN WITH WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WARMER MON. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH MON
NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS. PRECIPITATION LIKELY
TO SPREAD INLAND FURTHER TUE AS LOW CENTER MOVES NW ACROSS THE KENAI
PEN...MAY SEE A QUICK SHOT AT SNOW AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NW INTO THE
INTERIOR. NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF WED LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND WINDS TO THE GULF.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
LOCAL BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS TO HOLD THROUGH MON. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW MON AS WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE AREA.

AK PEN/AK PEN...BERING SEA...
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL HOLD THROUGH
MON...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. WINDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND EAST BERING SEA TUE NIGHT AND WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE AND WED WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WEATHER FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM...120 130
         GALE...125 129 132 138 140 150 155 172 175 176 180 185
              AND 179.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 10

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.