Storm Warning 196, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 17, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)

Expired

Oct 17, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

323 
FZAK52 PAFC 171157
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-180000-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 965 MB LOW 70 NM EAST OF SAINT GEORGE MOVES OVER UNIMAK ISLAND 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 970 MB...THEN MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SAND POINT ON MON AT 983 MB. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-180000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-180000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT EXCEPT SW 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 8 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-180000-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-180000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 10 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 7 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-180000-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT N OF CAPE MENDENHALL. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-180000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-180000-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-180000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-180000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-180000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-180000-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-180000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 16, 5:00 PM AKDT, 11 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY STRONG LOW REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND HAD
PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BERING AND VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA, KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA, KODIAK ISLAND THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY
ALL MOVE THE STRONG BERING SEA LOW SOUTH AND EAST TO A SPOT ABOUT 120
MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALSO BERING A NEW LOW INTO
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE MODELS PROGRESS INTO MONDAY,
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON WHICH LOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYSTEM. THE
GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO
THAT IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE WEATHER FRONT OVER KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF WILL SWING NORTH AND STALL ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEAKEN OVER THE LOWER COOK INLET MONDAY. RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL BECOME SHOWERS MONDAY. AREAS
OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY, MAINLY ALONG THE ALASKA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM
TONIGHT THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY. STRONG WIND DEVELOPING ALONG THE
GULF COAST THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND HAS
STALLED AND IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BERING SEA...THE STRONG LOW JUST EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY EVENING THEN TURN
EAST TO LIE ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. AN AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
WIND WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE DOMINANT LOW SOUTH OF THE KODIAK ISLAND WILL DRIFT INTO THE
WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE WED. A WEATHER FRONT WEST
OF THE BERING SEA MONDAY WILL INTO THE CENTRAL BERING

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MARINE...STORM...170 172 175
         GALES...120 125 130 155 160 165 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 10

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.