Gale Warning 744, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
405 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STORM FORCE LOW JUST EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS IS BY FAR THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. A GALE FORCE
OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHES EAST FROM THE LOW TO THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN OKAY AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK OF THE STRONG EASTERN
BERING LOW. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SUBTLE TRACK DIFFERENCES AS IT
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND THEN DIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CHAIN. THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT EXACTLY
WHERE THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TODAY AND TOMORROW ON
THE SOUTH/WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING A DEVELOPING 970 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
GULF SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
A FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS
EVENING AND STALLS OUT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS...AND
PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...AS WELL AS GALE FORCE WINDS. A 970 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE COASTAL RAIN...MILD TEMPS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS PRETTY MUCH STALLING
OUT THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. PRECIPITATION SO FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO STAY
THAT WAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AS THE PARENT LOW CROSSES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRYING AND COOLING.

BERING/ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA...
IMPRESSIVE LOW THIS MORNING JUST EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE ON ITS SOUTH/WEST SIDE. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT
FURTHER TODAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL ACTUALLY PERFORM A COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 150 MILES. TOMORROW MORNING...THIS
WILL BRING THE LOW BACK TO ABOUT WHERE IT IS THIS MORNING. THE LOW
WILL THEN DIVE SOUTH...PASSING THROUGH THE CHAIN ROUGHLY AROUND KING
COVE. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE PRIBILOFS AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS TOPPING 60 MPH AT TIMES. AN
INTERESTING COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE A POLAR LOW NORTHWEST OF
SHEMYA THIS MORNING DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEST/CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN OVER THE
REGION...PRECIPITATION WILL END UP MIXING WITH SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT MILD...MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH MODEST LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND...WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE BERING/ALEUTIANS...ALTHOUGH
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 185.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONES 120 130 150 170 172 179 413 414.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 125 132 138 140 155 160 165 171 175 176
          180 185 351 352 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY OCT 10