Storm Warning 165, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY STRONG LOW REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND HAD
PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BERING AND VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA, KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA, KODIAK ISLAND THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY
ALL MOVE THE STRONG BERING SEA LOW SOUTH AND EAST TO A SPOT ABOUT 120
MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALSO BERING A NEW LOW INTO
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE MODELS PROGRESS INTO MONDAY,
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON WHICH LOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYSTEM. THE
GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO
THAT IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE WEATHER FRONT OVER KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF WILL SWING NORTH AND STALL ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEAKEN OVER THE LOWER COOK INLET MONDAY. RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL BECOME SHOWERS MONDAY. AREAS
OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY, MAINLY ALONG THE ALASKA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM
TONIGHT THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY. STRONG WIND DEVELOPING ALONG THE
GULF COAST THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND HAS
STALLED AND IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

BERING SEA...THE STRONG LOW JUST EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY EVENING THEN TURN
EAST TO LIE ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. AN AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
WIND WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE DOMINANT LOW SOUTH OF THE KODIAK ISLAND WILL DRIFT INTO THE
WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE WED. A WEATHER FRONT WEST
OF THE BERING SEA MONDAY WILL INTO THE CENTRAL BERING

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MARINE...STORM...170 172 175
         GALES...120 125 130 155 160 165 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 10