Storm Warning 149, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Sep 25, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Sep 26, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

131 
FZAK52 PAFC 252334
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-261200-
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 967 MB SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO NEAR SHEMYA
SUN NIGHT THEN WEAKEN TO 971 MB 160 NM NORTH OF ADAK MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-261200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-261200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-261200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-261200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-261200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS
7 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-261200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...WEST OF UNALASKA...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FROM UNALASKA EAST...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-261200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.

.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-261200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-261200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-261200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO
21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 36 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 44 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-261200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-261200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Sep 25, 5:25 AM AKDT, 10 hours 35 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
525 AM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER-LVLS A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPS MAINLAND AK SOUTH THROUGH
THE GULF OF AK AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING
AN UPPER-HIGH IS PINCHED OFF NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. A 150 KT JET
MAX IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND RUSHING UP INTO THE AK
PANHANDLE. A 190 KT JET MAX IS TRAVERSING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND WILL REINFORCE THE TROUGH. THESE FEATURES ARE WELL
DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
ABOUT 300 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND IN THE GULF OF AK IS MOVING
NORTH AND SLOWLY FILLING. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
BRUSHES PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...THE KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND.
FURTHER WEST...A COMPACT BUT STRONG LOW IS PASSING SAFELY SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. SURFACE RIDGING POKES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AK FROM
THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH IN THE
NORTHERN BERING. AS A RESULT...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ACCEPTABLY CAPTURE THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES IN THE AOR. THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL APPROACH MIDDLETON ISLAND
THROUGH SATURDAY AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS DO NOT DEPICT THE SURFACE LOW MOVING MUCH FURTHER
NORTH THAN MIDDLETON ISLAND. THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER...WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM SLOWER AND TRACKING IT FURTHER EAST...MORE TOWARDS CORDOVA.
ALL MODELS DO DRAG THE RESIDUAL UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST AND ASHORE
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON SUNDAY. THE NAM DID NOT INITIALIZE
WELL...SO TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION. OUT WEST...A
TROPICAL SYSTEM EAST OF JAPAN LOOKS TO APPROACH THE FAR WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM WILL YIELD STORM-FORCE WINDS OR HIGHER AS IT ROTATES INTO THE
AOR. FURTHERMORE...MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM SIMILARLY THROUGH THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF AK BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT PERFORMING WELL WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AOR. THE PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS ARE MIXING
OUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND NOT ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING DESPITE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS. AS SUCH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED HIGHER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE COMPACT LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY ROTATE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF AK...BUT
ASSOCIATED WEATHER LOOKS TO LARGELY BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE GULF AND TOWARDS SE AK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE SHOWERS (MIXING WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS) BRUSHING THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
RESIDUAL UPPER-LOW IN THE GULF WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AND BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL ENABLE SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
AND MAT-SU VALLEY...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY DRY...THOUGH
A SQUEEZED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALBEIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL WEAKEN...AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH TEMPORARILY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE LOW PASSING
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE UP INTO THE
EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN SQUEEZE THE GRADIENT TO YIELD
BREEZY/BLUSTERY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SOUTHWEST...
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
DRY WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
STRONG...WITH STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING AND KEEPING CONDITIONS
RATHER CHILLY/BRISK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A STRONG LOW NEAR JAPAN WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN BERING ON
SUNDAY...AND TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL BERING ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STORM-FORCE AND POSSIBLE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FORECAST CHALLENGES NEXT WEEK WILL LARGELY FOCUS ON THE LOW THAT
TRACKS ACROSS THE BERING. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE
TRACK AND SCOPE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE COLDER
AIRMASS IN NORTHERN AK SLOWLY BEGINS TO SLIP SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK
AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...351 411 414 120 130 132 138 140 150 160 165 170 175
                176 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JAM SEP 10

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.