Gale Warning 614, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT SAT SEP 25 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
AND WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER BEAUFORT SEA IS
EXTENDING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN MAINLAND. A WEAK UPPER HIGH HAD
MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL BERING FROM THE SIBERIA OVERNIGHT. A DRY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER WESTERN ALASKA.

A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT
PLAGUED SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS STILL PERSIST OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, BRISTOL BAY, THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.UPPER LEVELS...LOW OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE NORTHERN GULF BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA AND THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF SUNDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE TALKEETNA
AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

BERING SEA...A STORM OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL BERING MONDAY.
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD TO THE  THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY
EVENING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC
TUESDAY THEN TURN NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF RAIN
AND WIND KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND THE REST
OF THE GULF AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 175 176
         GALE 130 150 160 165 170 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 10