Storm Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

247 
FZAK62 PAFC 041254
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-050300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 966 MB LOW NEAR 49N 168W WILL WEAKEN TO 974 MB AND MOVE TO 48N 172W
BY TUESDAY MORNING.  ON TUESDAY A 965 MB LOW NEAR 45N 157W WILL BRING
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW TO THE BERING. IT WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH AND
MOVE TO 48N 157W BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 24 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 TO 27 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N. 
.TUE...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. N OF 58N. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 24 TO 28 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 TO 28 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W
OF 175W. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W. RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

971 
FZAK62 PAFC 050041
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-051500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 MB LOW NEAR 50N 173W WILL MOVE TO 51N 170E AT 985 MB WED
AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX 963 MB LOW NEAR 47N 164W TUE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ411-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 TO 29 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 TO 30 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS N AND W. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 26 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
N AND W. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS N AND W. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT SE WIND 25 KT E OF 174W AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT...HIGHEST W. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT SE WIND 20 KT E OF 177W BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 25 FT...HIGHEST W. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N AND W OF 175W. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 20 FT...HIGHEST W. PATCHY
FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT. 
  
$$

PKZ413-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT SE 25 KT E OF 175W AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 25 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
W. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 19 FT...HIGHEST W. PATCHY FOG.

.WED...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS W. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HIGHEST WINDS S AND E.
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT...HIGHEST S. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. HIGHEST WINDS N. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT.


$$

432 
FZAK62 PAFC 051246
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-060300-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BERING ON TUESDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THE BERING THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ411-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 TO 24 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-060300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

167 
FZAK62 PAFC 060048
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-061500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 982 MB LOW NEAR 53N 178E WILL MOVE TO 52N 168E AT 982 MB WED
AFTERNOON. A 960 MB LOW NEAR 47N 163W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO 52N 155W THU AFTERNOON

$$

PKZ411-061500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-061500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-061500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-061500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 5 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO NE 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A PATTERN SHIFT IS IN THE WORKS THIS MORNING..WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE PANHANDLE.  REFLECTING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...A 965 MB LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE STATE.  AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD IT WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE WEST AS IT IS PUSHED THAT
DIRECTION BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
WILL MOVE UP FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES
TO THE STATE AND AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE SHORT TERM.  THE 06Z RUNS OF
THE NAM/GFS DID DIFFER A LITTLE FROM THE 00Z RUNS ON TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.  THE 00Z MODEL RUN
SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE 06Z
RUNS INDICATED MORE PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING.  AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE...THE 00Z RUNS APPEAR TO BE VERIFYING A LITTLE BETTER THIS
MORNING AND THE INITIAL PANELS OF THE 12Z NAM CONCUR.  IN THE LONG
TERM HPC GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BRINGS WARM
MOIST AIR IN.  THIS WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION
INITIALLY WITH OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT. BY MONDAY NIGHT
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST...WHILE DOWNSLOPING WILL PREVENT MUCH PRECIP FROM FALLING IN THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.  IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A LITTLE HEAVIER...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PARKS
HIGHWAY.  EXPECT STRONG WINDS THROUGH ALL THE USUAL CHANNELED AREAS
SUCH AS THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...BIG WARM UP EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES.  THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CIRCULATING
RIGHT AROUND THIS LOW...SO A DOWNSLOPE EFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED JUST
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.  PILOTS CAN EXPECT TO SEE WIND SHEAR IN THE
TAFS WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND THIS LOW...ESPECIALLY JUST
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHEN THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH.
BY TONIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WEST OF
THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGING IN COLD
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AIR
ALOFT.  EXPECT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THESE SHOULD BE SHORTLIVED WITH A
RETURN TO A SNOW FORECAST FOR THE K DELTA BY TUESDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WITH THAT STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVING IN TODAY
THE USUAL STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND IN THE
PRIBILOFS.  RIGHT NOW WINDS WILL REMAIN GALE FORCE FOR THE SHORT TERM
MARINE FORECAST...WITH SOME STORM FORCE WINDS MAKING IT INTO THE ST
MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS IN THE MID RANGE.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING COLD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW TO THE
PRIBILOFS...MAKING A GOOD CHANCE FOR A BLIZZARD TONIGHT.  OF COURSE
THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE
TEMPS WARM UP...SO IF THAT OCCURS TO QUICKLY A BLIZZARD WOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AT BEST.  AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE ENOUGH TO MAKE
IT A WATCH FOR TONIGHT...NOT A WARNING.  THIS WILL BE REEXAMINED ON
THE DAY PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONG TERM FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS ALWAYS BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO
REMAIN STORMY.  A NEW LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ALEUTIANS ON
THURSDAY BRINGING MORE WINDS AND MOST LIKELY RAIN TO THE WESTERN ZONES
WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.  IN THE EAST...MORE DOWNSLOPING CAN
BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDES OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR EVEN RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 195
MARINE...GALES 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 180
               170 171 172 175 176 185 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 185 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF JAN 10