Blizzard Watch 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

382 
WWAK42 PAFC 040809
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1109 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

AKZ155-042115-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0002.100104T1200Z-100105T1200Z/
/X.EXB.PAFC.BZ.W.0001.100104T0809Z-100105T0000Z/
/X.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0001.100104T1200Z-100105T1200Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
1109 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST MONDAY ALONG THE COAST...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO
3 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR FREEZING RAIN...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST MONDAY. THE BLIZZARD
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM AKST TUESDAY. 

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS A STRONG FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. FRESH
SNOWFALL ACCOMPANIED WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH STRONGER
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. 

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL SWEEP
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND CONTINUE
TO WARM IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN TO EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE ZONE THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. LOCAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ195-042100-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100104T2100Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
1109 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY. 

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS A STRONG FRONT THAT
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH SNOW THAT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING MONDAY
ON SAINT GEORGE AND BY LATE MORNING ON SAINT PAUL...IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES AS SNOW CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ161-042100-
/X.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-100104T2100Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
1109 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST
MONDAY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WEST OF KING SALMON...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST
MONDAY. 

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS A FRONT THAT IS SWEEPING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. WEST OF KING SALMON SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES THROUGH THE MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN LATE IN THE
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM. LOCAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO MEANS THAT PERIODS OF
SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.
BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
422 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. A CUTOFF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND IS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KAMATCHKA PENINSULA. A TROUGH REGION ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SHEMYA WITH A WEAKER DUMBBELL LOW 500 MILES SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR.
AT THE SURFACE...A 978 MB LOW IS CENTERED UNDER THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF
SHEMYA WHILE A 970 MB LOW IS CENTERED UNDER THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR. A STRONG WARM FRONT STRETCHES NORTH OF THE 970 MB LOW INTO
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM ON
THE NORTHWEST PROGRESSION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE 970 MB LOW AND THE
GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.  ALL MODELS KEEP COLD ENOUGH AIR
AND STRONG ENOUGH WINDS TO GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE ABILITY OF MODELS TO
CORRECTLY DEPICT THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY WEDNESDAY AND A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BY FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG MODEL DIVERGENCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW AND THEN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF DUE TO OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONLY
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WHILE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
SUSITNA VALLEYS. THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A STRONG ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR
STRONG WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEGINNING
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES FARTHER INLAND MONDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS.  ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPING WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE ZERO
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

.SOUTHWEST/BRISTOL BAY...A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL EFFECT MUCH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. OVERRUNNING
SNOW IS ALREADY FALLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN BRISTOL BAY
REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS
WEST OF DILLINGHAM. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND GUSTS
IN COASTAL REGIONS ALONG BRISTOL BAY TODAY IN TOMORROW. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA MAY LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. A MIXED BAG OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG BRISTOL BAY AS WARMER AIR
OVERRUNS COOLER SURFACE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY.

.ALEUTIANS...A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
TODAY WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE ENTIRE CHAIN THROUGH
MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL BE THE HEAVIEST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.  WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR STORM FORCE LEVELS TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE BERING SEA. OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH
SNOW AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE PRIBILOFS
FROM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS FAVOR THE PERSISTENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND MAINLAND.  BROAD SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195...BLIZZARD WATCH 155
MARINE...STORM WARNING...179 185
        GALE WARNING...130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 172 175
                         176 179 180
        HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN JAN 10