Gale Warning 35, NWS Anchorage, AK

202 
FZAK52 PAFC 041414 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

CORRECTED ZONE 150.

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 966 MB LOW 305 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK WILL WEAKEN TO 974 MB AND MOVE
TO 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK BY TUESDAY MORNING.  ON TUESDAY A 965 MB
LOW 625 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL BRING STRONG EASTERLY FLOW TO THE
BERING. IT WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH AND MOVE TO 480 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SAND POINT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-050300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-050300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-050300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. BLOWING SNOW.
RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-050300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING
SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-050300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 45 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-050300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

001 
FZAK52 PAFC 050041
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051500-
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 175 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SHEMYA AT 985 MB WED AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX 963 MB LOW 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR TUE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
WED.

$$

PKZ150-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THRU FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-051500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU THRU SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-051500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU THRU FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-051500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI THRU SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 8 FT BERING
SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-051500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC
SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC 
SIDE. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 26 FT
BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
SHEMYA W...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-051500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO
35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 55 KT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 50 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 40 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THRU SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT BUILDING
TO 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-051500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU THRU SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
422 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. A CUTOFF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND IS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KAMATCHKA PENINSULA. A TROUGH REGION ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SHEMYA WITH A WEAKER DUMBBELL LOW 500 MILES SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR.
AT THE SURFACE...A 978 MB LOW IS CENTERED UNDER THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF
SHEMYA WHILE A 970 MB LOW IS CENTERED UNDER THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR. A STRONG WARM FRONT STRETCHES NORTH OF THE 970 MB LOW INTO
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM ON
THE NORTHWEST PROGRESSION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE 970 MB LOW AND THE
GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.  ALL MODELS KEEP COLD ENOUGH AIR
AND STRONG ENOUGH WINDS TO GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE ABILITY OF MODELS TO
CORRECTLY DEPICT THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY WEDNESDAY AND A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BY FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG MODEL DIVERGENCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW AND THEN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF DUE TO OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONLY
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WHILE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
SUSITNA VALLEYS. THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A STRONG ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR
STRONG WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEGINNING
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES FARTHER INLAND MONDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS.  ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPING WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE ZERO
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

.SOUTHWEST/BRISTOL BAY...A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL EFFECT MUCH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. OVERRUNNING
SNOW IS ALREADY FALLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN BRISTOL BAY
REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS
WEST OF DILLINGHAM. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND GUSTS
IN COASTAL REGIONS ALONG BRISTOL BAY TODAY IN TOMORROW. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA MAY LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. A MIXED BAG OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG BRISTOL BAY AS WARMER AIR
OVERRUNS COOLER SURFACE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY.

.ALEUTIANS...A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
TODAY WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE ENTIRE CHAIN THROUGH
MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL BE THE HEAVIEST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.  WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR STORM FORCE LEVELS TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE BERING SEA. OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH
SNOW AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE PRIBILOFS
FROM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS FAVOR THE PERSISTENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND MAINLAND.  BROAD SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195...BLIZZARD WATCH 155
MARINE...STORM WARNING...179 185
        GALE WARNING...130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 172 175
                         176 179 180
        HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN JAN 10