Small Craft Advisory 63, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT THE MODELS TODAY AS THEY
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH IS
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE AND GULF IS ALSO FEEDING A
SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF. THIS IS CREATING A PATTERN OF OFF SHORE
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA INCLUDING THE
GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND.
THERE IS A STRONG FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA THAT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT AS A JET STREAK IS
VISIBLE AT 250 MB ALONG IT.
THAT IS THE ONLY PART OF THE JET STREAM IN THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
MAIN SECTION OF THE JET REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
AS A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE FOLLOWS THE GULF LOW WESTWARD. THIS MOISTURE
IS NOT REACHING INLAND AND THAT LEAVES FOG AS THE MAIN ISSUE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. THE WORST OF IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA.
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE CASE INTO TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS INDICATE A CUTOFF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM EASTERN ALASKA INTO YUKON AND THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES. AS A RESULT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE GULF WILL BE
BLOCKED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN THE LONG TERM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155 172 175 185.
         STORM 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 138 150 155 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 10