Gale Warning 72, NWS Anchorage, AK

178 
FZAK51 PAFC 230038
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 22 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 22 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO A 993MB
LOW 450 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK BY SAT AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO 300 NM
SOUTH OF COLD BAY BY SUN AFTERNOON.  A 986MB LOW 1200 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK WILL MOVE TO A 964 MB LOW 900 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND BY
SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO 600 NM SOUTH OF SITKA BY SUN
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 22 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 22 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 22 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 22 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
40 KT IN THE MORNING NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.

$$

PKZ130-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 22 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 22 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 22 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 22 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 10 KT NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NE 10 KT NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NE 10 KT NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 22 2010

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT THE MODELS TODAY AS THEY
HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH IS
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE AND GULF IS ALSO FEEDING A
SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF. THIS IS CREATING A PATTERN OF OFF SHORE
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA INCLUDING THE
GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND.
THERE IS A STRONG FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA THAT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT AS A JET STREAK IS
VISIBLE AT 250 MB ALONG IT.
THAT IS THE ONLY PART OF THE JET STREAM IN THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
MAIN SECTION OF THE JET REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
AS A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE FOLLOWS THE GULF LOW WESTWARD. THIS MOISTURE
IS NOT REACHING INLAND AND THAT LEAVES FOG AS THE MAIN ISSUE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. THE WORST OF IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA.
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE CASE INTO TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS INDICATE A CUTOFF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM EASTERN ALASKA INTO YUKON AND THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES. AS A RESULT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE GULF WILL BE
BLOCKED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION IN THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN THE LONG TERM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155 172 175 185.
         STORM 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 138 150 155 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 10