Wind Advisory 8, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1136 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ERN OK AFTER 06Z...WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR TSRA AT KMLC..KRVS AND KTUL TOWARDS 12Z WHEN
MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS BOUNDARY AND LINE OF STORMS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST DURING THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE ARKANSAS TAF
SITED FROM LATE AFTERNOON ON. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OK TAF SITES AFTER 18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS A FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY
INTO SOUTHERN OSAGE COUNTY. STORM INITIALLY MOVED RIGHT OF THE
MEAN FLOW...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW VOLUME SCANS FROM KINX INDICATES
THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO LIFT MORE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE LATEST
STORM MOTION TRENDS...COUPLED WITH THE CELL MOVING INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS...SUGGESTS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. ADDITIONAL LEFT MOVING CELLS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP
FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO
PAWNEE/OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDNIGHT...
EXPECT LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP...AND
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS/
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON
TRACK. WILL UPDATE TO TWEAK TIMING OF FRONTAL POSITION/THUNDERSTORM
LINE OVERNIGHT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS AND AFTER 00Z NAM DATA BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1255 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1254 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 3 AM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS .
ONSET...AFTER 3 AM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING .

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A
SQUALL LINE HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BACKBUILD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERCOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WHILE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...A BRIEF SPIN UP WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELL...AND WITHIN THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY END TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE AREA BY LATE THIS WEEK...WITH HIGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
FRIDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. LATER FORECASTS NEED TO BE MONITORED CONCERNING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER IN THE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
819 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     HAIL             2 SE HALLETT            36.21N 96.54W
03/23/2009  E1.75 INCH       PAWNEE             OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JBM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1204 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

OKZ054-059-240530-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
1204 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 1203 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAWNEE TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF
BARNSDALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED
INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...OSAGE...HOMINY...WYNONA...FAIRFAX...BARNSDALL...
PERSHING...TALLANT...NELAGONEY...BURBANK...OKESA...PAWNEE...JENNINGS.
..HALLETT...MARAMEC...BLACKBURN...SKEDEE...CLEVELAND AND RALSTON.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3669 9707 3678 9610 3627 9610 3616 9668
      3616 9681 3625 9683 3625 9692 3633 9692
      3635 9703 3651 9704 3654 9699 3656 9690
      3659 9690 3660 9691 3658 9699 3659 9704
      3666 9708
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 223DEG 32KT 3617 9720 3639 9616

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
101 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

OKZ054>057-059>061-240700-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WASHINGTON
OK-
101 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...NORTHWESTERN CRAIG...NOWATA...
     WASHINGTON...OSAGE...NORTHERN TULSA AND PAWNEE

AT 100 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF FAIRFAX TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WYNONA TO OOLOGAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...
LENAPAH...WANN...WATOVA...NEW ALLUWE...OOLOGAH...TALALA...PAWHUSKA...
SHIDLER...AVANT...WYNONA...WOLCO...FAIRFAX...BARNSDALL...PERSHING...
TALLANT...NELAGONEY...BURBANK...OKESA...APPERSON...WEBB CITY...
PEARSONIA...BIGHEART...FORAKER...HULAH...GRAINOLA...BARTLESVILLE...
VERA...RAMONA...OCHELATA...DEWEY...COPAN...CENTRALIA...HOLLOW...
CENTRAILIA AND RALSTON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3699 9517 3633 9564 3650 9642 3648 9693
      3676 9684 3679 9676 3700 9674
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 210DEG 32KT 3656 9676 3658 9637
          3643 9570

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
104 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST FORAKER                 36.87N 96.57W
03/24/2009  M59 MPH          OSAGE              OK   MESONET

&&

JBM