Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 241408
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

OKC145-241430-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-090324T1430Z/
WAGONER OK-
908 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WAGONER COUNTY...

AT 907 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COWETA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 9562 3598 9566 3608 9555 3590 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1408Z 237DEG 34KT 3594 9561

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 241419
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
919 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

OKC145-241429-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-090324T1430Z/
WAGONER OK-
919 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WAGONER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA AND WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

TO REPORT PREVIOUS HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN TULSA.

LAT...LON 3586 9562 3598 9566 3608 9555 3590 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 236DEG 39KT 3602 9547

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE OVER NE OK
THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SERN
KS INTO SWRN OK. WHILE INSTABILITY ISNT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS A 50-60KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET PERSISTS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING ENSUES...WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT SHIFTING INTO SE OK AND WRN AR. WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT
RADAR TRENDS BEFORE DECIDING ON FIRST PERIOD POPS.

AFTER A COOL NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO OUR S WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
N AS A WARM FRONT AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF
THE GFS...AS THE NAM APPEARS TOO SLOW AND DEEP WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN BETTER DEFINE THE POPS.

FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY INTERESTING TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF AND
GEM MODELS ARE ALL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATITUDINAL
TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW...WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED
AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS OK ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME EARLY SPRING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF
KS/MO...AND POSSIBLY INTO NE OK/NW AR. NOT READY TO BITE ON THE 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW SUGGESTED BY THE GFS ACROSS FAR NERN OK...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NE OK/NW AR. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.

AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOUNCE BACK
ON SUNDAY AS STRONG SLY FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  39  61  43 /  50  10  20  50
FSM   65  41  67  46 /  60  10  20  50
MLC   63  39  65  46 /  70  10  20  50
BVO   60  35  61  40 /  50  10  20  50
FYV   63  34  63  42 /  70  10  10  50
BYV   62  36  61  43 /  80  10  10  50
MKO   63  38  64  43 /  80  10  20  50
MIO   56  36  62  45 /  90  10  20  50
F10   60  39  62  43 /  70  10  20  50
HHW   70  43  67  49 /  60  10  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
523 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
449 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR INTERSTATE 44 AROUND 7 AM AND STRETCH FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND 1 PM. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND. STRONG WIND
FIELDS AND RESULTANT SHEAR COULD PRODUCE BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF REPEAT THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD THE COLD FRONT SLOW
DOWN...STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL POSE
A GREATER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE UNSETTLED. THE FRONT WILL START BACK NORTH LATE
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A POTENT UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY WILL BRING A THUNDERSTORM THREAT LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR AREAS
NEAR THE KANSAS OR MISSOURI BORDERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT
SNOW IS LIKELY NORTH OF OUR AREA. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN
ROUTE...CHANCES INCREASE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

OKZ055>057-061-241045-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-ROGERS OK-WASHINGTON OK-
500 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN ROGERS...WESTERN CRAIG...NOWATA AND WASHINGTON

AT 500 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES WEST OF DELAWARE TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RAMONA TO RAMONA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...LENAPAH...
WATOVA...NEW ALLUWE...TALALA...RAMONA...WHITE OAK...CENTRALIA...
HOLLOW AND CENTRAILIA.

A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN ROGERS...WESTERN CRAIG...NOWATA AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 545 AM
CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3699 9520 3677 9516 3661 9526 3648 9600
      3654 9601 3662 9595 3683 9590 3700 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 1000Z 256DEG 32KT 3677 9584 3664 9584
          3654 9593

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
705 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

OKZ054-060-064-241230-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-TULSA OK-
705 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...CREEK AND TULSA

AT 704 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MANNFORD TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF DEPEW...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...SAND SPRINGS...BRISTOW...SLICK...DEPEW...KELLYVILLE
AND SAPULPA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3615 9635 3617 9627 3618 9626 3630 9600
      3586 9615 3586 9618 3574 9619 3564 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 1204Z 234DEG 37KT 3609 9634 3570 9653

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
732 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

OKZ054-060-064-066-241300-
CREEK OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-TULSA OK-
732 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...EASTERN CREEK AND
     TULSA

AT 730 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SPERRY TO SAPULPA TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SLICK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE ...TULSA....SAND SPRINGS...
JENKS...OWASSO...GLENPOOL...MOUNDS ...KIEFER...KELLYVILLE AND
SAPULPA.

THE STRONGEST STORM IN THE LINE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF SAND
SPRINGS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3564 9649 3595 9625 3630 9614 3644 9579
      3642 9579 3640 9581 3615 9583 3586 9598
      3565 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 1230Z 239DEG 34KT 3626 9607 3600 9615
          3572 9637

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
757 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

OKZ064>066-241330-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
757 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 830 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHERN CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OKFUSKEE

AT 757 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
SOUTH OF BOLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CASTLE...BOLEY...MASON AND
OKFUSKEE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3573 9619 3555 9612 3539 9643 3540 9645
      3545 9645 3545 9647 3543 9649 3548 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 1257Z 237DEG 38KT 3547 9647

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
828 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

OKZ061-067-241400-
ROGERS OK-WAGONER OK-
828 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND ROGERS

AT 828 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM CLAREMORE TO EAST BROKEN ARROW...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...CLAREMORE...VERDIGRIS...TIAWAH...FOYIL...BUSHYHEAD
AND CHELSEA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3623 9544 3607 9576 3610 9577 3631 9571
      3660 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 1328Z 228DEG 35KT 3632 9563 3609 9575

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
844 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

OKZ065-066-241415-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
844 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 844 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BEARDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WELEETKA...BEARDEN...
CLEARVIEW...PHAROAH AND BRYANT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3556 9609 3530 9597 3529 9598 3529 9638
      3536 9641
TIME...MOT...LOC 1344Z 234DEG 40KT 3528 9632