Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 240241
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
941 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

OKC113-240251-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-090324T0245Z/
OSAGE OK-
941 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 945 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

LAT...LON 3700 9650 3700 9639 3699 9639 3679 9675
      3679 9676 3696 9676 3699 9675 3700 9674
      3700 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 231DEG 45KT 3698 9661

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
900 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY
INTO SOUTHERN OSAGE COUNTY. STORM INITIALLY MOVED RIGHT OF THE
MEAN FLOW...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW VOLUME SCANS FROM KINX INDICATES
THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO LIFT MORE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE LATEST
STORM MOTION TRENDS...COUPLED WITH THE CELL MOVING INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS...SUGGESTS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. ADDITIONAL LEFT MOVING CELLS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP
FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO
PAWNEE/OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDNIGHT...
EXPECT LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP...AND
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS/
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON
TRACK. WILL UPDATE TO TWEAK TIMING OF FRONTAL POSITION/THUNDERSTORM
LINE OVERNIGHT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS AND AFTER 00Z NAM DATA BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
509 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
509 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
        INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...AFTER 7 PM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
        AFTER 5 AM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ALONG AN EASTWARD MOVING DRY LINE. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD MOVE OFF OF THE DRY LINE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ACROSS PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDNIGHT...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH
A STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE THUNDERSTORM LINE WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THIS EVENT...STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY
END TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE AREA BY LATE THIS WEEK...WITH HIGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
FRIDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. LATER FORECASTS NEED TO BE MONITORED CONCERNING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER IN THE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

OKZ054-240030-
OSAGE OK-
652 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OSAGE

AT 652 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 30
MILES WEST OF BURBANK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHIDLER...BURBANK...
APPERSON...WEBB CITY...FORAKER AND GRAINOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9628 3658 9689 3660 9691 3658 9699
      3655 9693 3650 9701 3650 9702 3656 9698
      3660 9706 3670 9707 3671 9705 3670 9694
      3676 9689 3676 9683 3679 9676 3700 9674
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 224DEG 53KT 3654 9722

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
819 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     HAIL             2 SE HALLETT            36.21N 96.54W
03/23/2009  E1.75 INCH       PAWNEE             OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JBM