Severe Thunderstorm Warning 425, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY REMAIN NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH A BATCH OF STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE KTUL/KRVS
TAF SITES AROUND 07Z. THERE STILL REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANASAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN KANSAS AND HAVE HUGGED THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AND SENT OUT UPDATED PRODUCTS
INCORPORATING THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION AND CURRENT WATCHES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1217 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1217 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES AS
THE EVENT PROGRESSES...SWEEPING EAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
STRONGER STORMS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THE FRONT SLOWS DURING THE DAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

AFTER THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY... A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

ARZ001-002-200615-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-
1218 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHERN CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN BENTON

AT 1215 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTH OF GATEWAY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  IN THE SHORT TERM
THIS STORM WILL STAY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI...BUT GUSTY WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH WILL EXPAND SOUTH FROM THE STORM INTO NORTHEAST
BENTON COUNTY AND NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE STORM COULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CARROLL COUNTY AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3642 9405 3650 9402 3650 9361 3650 9330
      3649 9329 3633 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0515Z 278DEG 31KT 3659 9388

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     HAIL             3 N HALLETT             36.28N 96.57W
08/20/2009  E0.88 INCH       PAWNEE             OK   PUBLIC

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 AM     HAIL             3 SW SPERRY             36.27N 96.03W
08/20/2009  E0.88 INCH       OSAGE              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AND 50 MPH WINDS

1245 AM     HAIL             SPERRY                  36.30N 95.99W
08/20/2009  E1.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

OKZ054>058-200630-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
1250 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CRAIG...NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA...NORTHERN NOWATA...
     WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OSAGE

AT 1250 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOLLOW TO 14 MILES WEST OF
HULAH...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...DELAWARE...LENAPAH...WANN...HULAH...
COPAN...CARDIN...PICHER AND HOLLOW.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9478 3674 9565 3691 9566 3676 9605
      3696 9632 3700 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 281DEG 40KT 3715 9541 3693 9626

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1253 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 AM     HAIL             5 NW OWASSO             36.32N 95.92W
08/20/2009  E1.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

OKZ064>066-200645-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
1254 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHERN CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 1255 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MILFAY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WELTY...BEGGS...BRISTOW...MILFAY...SLICK...
DEPEW...MOUNDS AND SHAMROCK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3594 9604 3562 9603 3562 9662 3591 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0555Z 269DEG 36KT 3575 9657