Severe Thunderstorm Warning 422, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY REMAIN NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH A BATCH OF STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE KTUL/KRVS
TAF SITES AROUND 07Z. THERE STILL REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANASAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN KANSAS AND HAVE HUGGED THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AND SENT OUT UPDATED PRODUCTS
INCORPORATING THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION AND CURRENT WATCHES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
443 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
442 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
ONSET...LATE THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE THIS EVENING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS... AND THESE MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... THE
MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES... PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
EARLY DISCREET CELLS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES... WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT... THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING AS
THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THE FRONT SLOWS DURING THE DAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE LOCATED IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

AFTER THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY... A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
920 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

OKZ055>057-200245-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
920 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CRAIG...NORTHERN NOWATA AND WASHINGTON

AT 915 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF WANN...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LENAPAH...WANN AND HOLLOW.

THIS IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE THROUGH 10
PM. IF THE STORM INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED...OR TURNS MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST A WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF NOWATA
AND CRAIG COUNTIES.

THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING OUTFLOW WINDS THAT HAVE ALREADY ENTERED
FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AND FAR NORTHWEST NOWATA COUNTY.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MAY BE EXPECTED INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD
OF THE STORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3686 9523 3684 9587 3699 9596 3699 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 287DEG 25KT 3706 9580

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1048 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 PM     HAIL             MIAMI                   36.87N 94.88W
08/19/2009  E1.50 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KDJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1051 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 PM     HAIL             COMMERCE                36.93N 94.87W
08/19/2009  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   PUBLIC

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 PM     HAIL             QUAPAW                  36.95N 94.79W
08/19/2009  E1.75 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   PUBLIC

1046 PM     TSTM WND GST     QUAPAW                  36.95N 94.79W
08/19/2009  E70 MPH          OTTAWA             OK   PUBLIC

&&

KDJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1112 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HAIL             2 E PEORIA              36.92N 94.63W
08/19/2009  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   PUBLIC

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

OKZ054-059-064-200530-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
1148 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN CREEK AND PAWNEE

AT 1148 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARAMEC...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OSAGE...JENNINGS...
TERLTON...HALLETT...MARAMEC...CLEVELAND...OILTON...SILVER CITY AND
MANNFORD.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3640 9641 3607 9628 3607 9663 3616 9664
      3616 9681 3617 9682 3625 9683 3625 9691
      3627 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 0448Z 263DEG 37KT 3616 9684