Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY DIFFICULT TAF SET WITH LARGELY IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS THRU THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH DIFFICULT TO TIME TSRA CHANCES
AT ALL SITES. FNT CURRENTLY N OF ALL TAF SITES...AND SHUD MOVE
THRU ALL THE SITES BY 06Z. TSRA CHANCES WILL MIGRATE SOUTH WITH
THE FNT. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY BEHIND THE BNDRY AS
WELL...WITH A TENDENCY FOR ANOTHER REPEAT LIGHT FG AND LOW CIG
EVENT AGAIN TNGT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
458 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...WET AND STORMY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
                                ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD THE SAINT LOUIS
AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PRESENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.

ALONG WITH THE SEVERE STORM POSSIBILITIES...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. ABUNDANT RAINS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAVE LED TO SATURATED SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS AND
RIVERS...AND ADDITIONAL RAIN FROM TODAYS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY
WORSEN THE FLOOD THREAT. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...OKCFFATSA...HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY EXITING EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL ALSO REMAIN...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND...WITH WEATHER RELATED RESPONSES LIKELY ONE OR MORE
TIMES DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
449 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

OKZ055>057-061>063-011045-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-NOWATA OK-ROGERS OK-WASHINGTON OK-
449 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN ROGERS...WESTERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN CRAIG...SOUTHERN
     NOWATA...WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN MAYES

AT 449 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM TALALA TO 2 MILES WEST OF FOYIL TO 3 MILES EAST
OF WHITE OAK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WATOVA...NEW ALLUWE...FOYIL...
OOLOGAH...BUSHYHEAD...TALALA...CHELSEA...VINITA...KETCHUM...BIG
CABIN...WHITE OAK...SPAVINAW...STRANG...ADAIR...PENSACOLA...LANGLEY
AND DISNEY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3667 9586 3672 9530 3671 9501 3631 9500
      3635 9572
TIME...MOT...LOC 0949Z 289DEG 21KT 3655 9570 3645 9555
          3661 9520

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     HAIL             LOCUST GROVE            36.20N 95.17W
05/01/2009  M0.75 INCH       MAYES              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY LOCUST GROVE POLICE DEPARTMENT

&&

KAT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
708 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

ARZ002-011315-
CARROLL AR-
708 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHERN CARROLL

AT 708 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BEAVER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OAK GROVE...OAK HILL...PLEASANT RIDGE...
BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...GREEN FOREST...CARROLLTON...COIN...
URBANETTE...GRANDVIEW...BUSCH AND BEAVER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3642 9386 3650 9384 3650 9341 3648 9332
      3626 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 1208Z 288DEG 16KT 3649 9374