Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WGUS74 KTSA 011310
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
810 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

OKC035-041-097-105-115-131-011400-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-090501T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ROGERS OK-DELAWARE OK-CRAIG OK-OTTAWA OK-NOWATA OK-MAYES OK-
810 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN MAYES...SOUTHEASTERN NOWATA...SOUTHERN OTTAWA...SOUTHERN
CRAIG...DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN ROGERS COUNTIES...

AT 805 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN 4 MILES SOUTH OF ADAIR...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH. RADAR INDICATES THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY 
FALLEN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 900 AM CDT.

THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MAYES COUNTY BETWEEN 
ADAIR...PRYOR...LOCUST GROVE AND SPAVINAW AND BACK TO ADAIR. 

FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED NORTH OF PRYOR. 

SOME OTHER LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN 
INCLUDE BIG CABIN...VINITA...PENSACOLA...LANGLEY...KETCHUM... 
SPAVINAW...CLEORA...CHLOETA...JAY AND MAYSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO
UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN TULSA.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 9457 3636 9563 3668 9568 3673 9466

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
250 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SUPERCELL MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH A
WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR FORT SMITH. GIVEN LATEST TRENDS...THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REMAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH STORMS POSSIBLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY SUNRISE. IF THIS
OCCURS...ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG BOUNDARY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
LIKELY FORM INTO A MCS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING/LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN BEYOND 24 HOURS...A SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD THREAT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

ECMWF/GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THIS AREA ON
SATURDAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER FEATURE...SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAIN FINALLY
SHIFTING EAST BY MONDAY.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST STAYED WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS AS NEXT
UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  54  60  52 /  70  70  90  90
FSM   78  62  74  59 /  50  60  80  80
MLC   77  62  72  55 /  40  60  60  70
BVO   66  52  59  48 /  70  70  90  80
FYV   72  58  69  55 /  60  70  90  80
BYV   71  53  59  50 /  70  70  90  80
MKO   73  58  62  53 /  70  70  90  80
MIO   68  51  59  49 /  70  70  90  80
F10   76  57  60  52 /  60  60  80  80
HHW   80  65  77  64 /  30  60  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
458 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...WET AND STORMY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
                                ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD THE SAINT LOUIS
AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PRESENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.

ALONG WITH THE SEVERE STORM POSSIBILITIES...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. ABUNDANT RAINS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAVE LED TO SATURATED SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS AND
RIVERS...AND ADDITIONAL RAIN FROM TODAYS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY
WORSEN THE FLOOD THREAT. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...OKCFFATSA...HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY EXITING EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL ALSO REMAIN...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND...WITH WEATHER RELATED RESPONSES LIKELY ONE OR MORE
TIMES DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

OKZ054-059-010615-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
1225 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 1225 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 21
MILES WEST OF PAWNEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...FAIRFAX...PAWNEE...
BLACKBURN...SKEDEE AND RALSTON.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3654 9699 3656 9690 3659 9690 3660 9693
      3658 9699 3659 9702 3674 9676 3625 9645
      3625 9692 3633 9692 3635 9703 3651 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 245DEG 28KT 3637 9718

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
449 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

OKZ055>057-061>063-011045-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-NOWATA OK-ROGERS OK-WASHINGTON OK-
449 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN ROGERS...WESTERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN CRAIG...SOUTHERN
     NOWATA...WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN MAYES

AT 449 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM TALALA TO 2 MILES WEST OF FOYIL TO 3 MILES EAST
OF WHITE OAK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WATOVA...NEW ALLUWE...FOYIL...
OOLOGAH...BUSHYHEAD...TALALA...CHELSEA...VINITA...KETCHUM...BIG
CABIN...WHITE OAK...SPAVINAW...STRANG...ADAIR...PENSACOLA...LANGLEY
AND DISNEY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3667 9586 3672 9530 3671 9501 3631 9500
      3635 9572
TIME...MOT...LOC 0949Z 289DEG 21KT 3655 9570 3645 9555
          3661 9520