Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...

ITS BEEN A VERY ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS.  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WERE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS THE CITY OF SPRINGFIELD
AND MUCH OF GREENE COUNTY.  MEANWHILE...FLOODING WAS ALSO ONGOING
OVER CHEROKEE COUNTY KANSAS AS TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED THIS
AREA.

FOR TODAY...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT IS GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI STATE LINE.  THIS REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY.
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO LIFT IN
THE FORM OF PRESSURE ADVECTION ALONG THE MID LEVEL ZONE OF
BAROCLINICITY.  THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SOME POPS GOING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...KEEPING THE FRONT OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS LOADED WITH MOISTURE...AND PRIMED TO STREAM
DIRECTLY INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE...CREATING NUMEROUS PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE TO A WIDESPREAD EPISODE OF SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

ITS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT THAT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION COULD
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK (MONDAY - TUESDAY NIGHT).  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ONGOING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH ALLOWING A DRIER AIRMASS TO SPREAD INTO THE OZARKS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE RETURNING AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF AT LEAST VICINITY THUNDER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORM ACTIVITY INCREASES OVER SOUTHWEST
MO/SOUTHEAST KS. A SURFACE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE AIRPORTS DURING THE MORNING AND SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY
ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING.
UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW MAY DROP CEILINGS TO IFR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO GO MVFR BUT WANT TO ALERT OUR
USERS TO THAT POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE THE FRONT AND
SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
813 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
813 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AND RESIDUAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE ON SOME LOW WATER
CROSSINGS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ALREADY
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER 2 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT
WITH A STALLED FRONT TO PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY/KARDELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
200 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

MOZ088-010730-
JASPER MO-
200 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JASPER COUNTY UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 159 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTH OF
MINDENMINES TO CARL JUNCTION...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURG TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF GALENA...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
211 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WEST MINERAL            37.28N 94.92W
05/01/2009                   CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODING IN THE COUNTY.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
259 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 AM     TSTM WND GST     CARL JUNCTION           37.18N 94.57W
05/01/2009  E50 MPH          JASPER             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT RELAYED VIA NWSCHAT. ALSO PEA HAIL.

&&

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
344 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

MOZ082-010915-
TEXAS MO-
344 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTY UNTIL 415 AM
CDT...

AT 341 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CABOOL TO 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WILLOW SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF CABOOL...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

TERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
359 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

MOZ093>095-102-010945-
LAWRENCE MO-CHRISTIAN MO-NEWTON MO-BARRY MO-
359 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN BARRY...NORTHWESTERN
CHRISTIAN...SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON AND SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL
445 AM CDT...

AT 356 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MARIONVILLE TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF GRANBY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 7 MILES EAST OF MOUNT VERNON TO 8 MILES EAST OF NEOSHO...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
452 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     TSTM WND GST     BUTTERFIELD             36.75N  93.91W
05/01/2009  E60 MPH          BARRY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

AF