Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
924 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION BEING SUPPORTED BY A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING
ALONG THE FRONT SAGGING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE OF
THE VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND ALONG THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
GRADIENT WITH 850 MB COMPUTED CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. EXPECT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS.

HOWEVER EXPECT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO CONTINUE TO PROPOGATE ACROSS
THE OZARKS DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
ARKANSAS MISSOURI BORDER.

THE GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING WILL IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...OR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
PITTSBURG KANSAS TO BOLIVAR MISSOURI THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING COULD DEVELOP WHERE STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ITS BEEN A VERY ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS.  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WERE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS THE CITY OF SPRINGFIELD
AND MUCH OF GREENE COUNTY.  MEANWHILE...FLOODING WAS ALSO ONGOING
OVER CHEROKEE COUNTY KANSAS AS TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED THIS
AREA.

FOR TODAY...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT IS GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI STATE LINE.  THIS REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY.
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO LIFT IN
THE FORM OF PRESSURE ADVECTION ALONG THE MID LEVEL ZONE OF
BAROCLINICITY.  THEREFORE HAVE KEPT SOME POPS GOING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...KEEPING THE FRONT OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS LOADED WITH MOISTURE...AND PRIMED TO STREAM
DIRECTLY INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE...CREATING NUMEROUS PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE TO A WIDESPREAD EPISODE OF SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

ITS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT THAT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION COULD
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK (MONDAY - TUESDAY NIGHT).  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE ONGOING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH ALLOWING A DRIER AIRMASS TO SPREAD INTO THE OZARKS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT WOULD SUGGEST MOISTURE RETURNING AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

A FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WHILE A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN
TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREVALENT WITH AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER INTO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
821 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021330-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
821 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BRING THE RISK OF FLOODING TO THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL ALSO BE
ONGOING ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
MAINLY THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT
WITH A STALLED FRONT TO PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1021 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     FLOOD            2 SW FIDELITY           37.05N  94.34W
05/01/2009                   NEWTON             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROUTE FF WEST OF HIGHWAY 59 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1022 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 AM     FLOOD            3 S FORDLAND            37.11N  92.94W
05/01/2009                   WEBSTER            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE Z SOUTH OF TOWN CLOSED AT THE FINLEY RIVER
            BRIDGE DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1024 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 AM     FLOOD            5 E VANZANT             36.97N  92.21W
05/01/2009                   DOUGLAS            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE EE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER ALONG THE
            LITTLE NORTH FORK RIVER.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1033 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 AM     FLOOD            CASSVILLE               36.68N  93.87W
05/01/2009                   BARRY              MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTES Y...C AND U ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY
            76 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1046 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 AM     HAIL             MOUNT VERNON            37.10N  93.82W
05/01/2009  E0.25 INCH       LAWRENCE           MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1106 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

MOZ078-011630-
CEDAR MO-
1106 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CEDAR COUNTY UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

AT 1105 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES WEST OF STOCKTON...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

RUNNELS