Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 010553
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

MOC077-010600-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-090501T0600Z/
GREENE MO-
1253 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY...

AT 1250 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
TURNERS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  STRAFFORD BY 100 AM CDT.

THIS ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 78 AND 85.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...THESE STORMS ARE
PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

AT 1219 AM CDT...NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 9328 3727 9306 3726 9306 3715 9307
      3715 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 0553Z 249DEG 17KT 3721 9322 3720 9306

$$

TERRY

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 010558
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

MOC077-010608-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-090501T0600Z/
GREENE MO-
1258 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 100 AM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING ARE EXITING THE WARNED
AREA...THUS THE WARNING IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3726 9328 3727 9306 3726 9306 3715 9307
      3715 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 0558Z 249DEG 17KT 3722 9319 3721 9303

$$

TERRY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

.UPDATE...

STORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO ALONG AND WEST
OF AN OSCEOLA TO SPRINGFIELD TO AVA LINE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASED OVER THE REGION. HIGH FREEZING LEVEL AND
NARROW CAPE OFF THE 00Z SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. WE ARE KEEPING
A CLOSE EYE ON STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS THEY SHOW HAIL
POTENTIAL WITH 50 DBZ CORES OVER 35 KFT.

TERRY

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOGGY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ALONG THE CLEARING LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
MODEST AND GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH.

THE WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH A STALLING
FRONT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT RAINFALL TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WITHIN REGION OF GREATER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER
CONVECTION MAY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

ON FRIDAY...A FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARKS. THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND RESULTING RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN
QUESTION. IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION
WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE FRONT.

FOR SATURDAY...PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
AS A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE FRONT. 850 MB
DEWPOINTS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

ON SUNDAY...A FINAL PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING MORE RAINFALL. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN THE 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE TIMING OF FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED
BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A BIT OF A BREAK ON MONDAY. HOWEVER
THE OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF AT LEAST VICINITY THUNDER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORM ACTIVITY INCREASES OVER SOUTHWEST
MO/SOUTHEAST KS. A SURFACE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE AIRPORTS DURING THE MORNING AND SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY
ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING.
UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW MAY DROP CEILINGS TO IFR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO GO MVFR BUT WANT TO ALERT OUR
USERS TO THAT POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE THE FRONT AND
SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
813 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
813 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AND RESIDUAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE ON SOME LOW WATER
CROSSINGS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ALREADY
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER 2 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT
WITH A STALLED FRONT TO PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY/KARDELL