Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 241758
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

MOC043-241808-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-090324T1845Z/
CHRISTIAN MO-
1258 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHRISTIAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WERE NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3682 9335 3684 9336 3698 9334 3699 9342
      3709 9341 3710 9339 3709 9290 3708 9290
      3684 9291 3681 9295
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 253DEG 16KT 3687 9304 3672 9302
          3652 9316

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1003 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WAS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI AT 930 AM (1430Z). CONVECTION WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD AND ALONG OF
THE FRONT...AS A STRONG SOUTHWEST JET REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE IN NATURE AS THEY ARE IN A BROKEN
LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST ALLOWING TRAINING STORMS AS THE
FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE STRONG LEVEL JET REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...HOWEVER LAPS DATA SHOWED INSTABILITY
INCREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH 200 TO 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
WITH THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND THE
STORMS STAYING DISCRETE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS WITH THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CONTINUING TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH A DRY SLOT AND A STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AS THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. FEEL THAT WHEN THIS OCCURS THE STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE AND RACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. IF BREAKS CAN OCCUR INSTABILITY WOULD INCREASE. HOWEVER EVEN
WITHOUT MUCH SUN MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WIND SHEAR A
TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN...BUT ONCE THE STORMS BECOME LINEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. THIS AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE...WITH WIND SHEAR ALSO WEAKENING SOME AS A
RESULT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING. THEREFORE A SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT
EXITS TO THE EAST. ONCE THE FRONT STARTS TO ACCELERATE THE
POTENTIAL OF FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED.

WISE

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THREE DISTINCT STORM SYSTEMS
IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IS WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION. A
WEAKER STORM SYSTEM IS THEN SLATED FOR MIDWEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

TODAY...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY PULL NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CORN BELT. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY OVERTAKING A DRY LINE IN KANSAS. LATEST MESO
ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 300 TO 500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE WITH LITTLE CINH WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THERE IS A
WINDOW...ALBEIT SHRINKING...WHERE SUPERCELLS MAY REMAIN THE
DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE THROUGH 12Z OR SO. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT WORK INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.

AROUND SUNRISE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL TEND TO ACCELERATE THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD. CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS BY THIS TIME WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT...SO EXPECT DISCRETE STORMS TO QUICKLY LINE OUT. THIS
LINE WILL THEN MARCH EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST TO CARRY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR CLOUD BREAKS OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY GETTING A
WARM START...AND ANY SUNSHINE WOULD JUST INCREASE INSTABILITY AND
THE ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT.

WILL ALSO BE EXTENDING THE WIND ADVISORY BACK EAST ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE PLATEAU INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOT ALL THAT MUCH
DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL VEER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. COULD EASILY SEE
A FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION.
THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE TRIMMED FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LINE
OF STORMS ROLLS THROUGH.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ...A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL QUICKLY EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE REGION. THINK THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ALONG
WITH SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS.
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. ANY RAINFALL
WOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

LATE THIS WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION. LONG WAVE CHARTS FAVOR STRONG
DIGGING OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. PREFER A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THIS ENERGY AS
MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK TO EJECT IT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE LOOKS TO BE BETTER INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT SET UP. DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A COLD TAP FOR SOME
WET SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. MOST LIKELY AREA AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS.

THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH DIGGING ENERGY CONTINUING TO BE FAVORED OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE
ANOTHER DECENT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK. PLENTY OF TIME TO HONE IN ON THIS ONE.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BOTH THE JOPLIN AND
SPRINGFIELD AIRPORTS TODAY.  JOPLIN WILL BE IMPACTED THIS
MORNING...WHILE STORMS WILL BE OVER SPRINGFIELD BY MID DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS...BRINGING IN SOME
COOLER AIR.  A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO OCCUR.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO DIP INTO THE ARF
CONTINUE.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>095-101>103.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1225 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251730-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1225 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING...

  HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
  DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH.
  ISOLATED TORNADOES.
  AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
  MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND IMPACT AREAS ALONG
  AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. THE STORMS WILL REACH THE
  ROLLA...HOUSTON...AND WEST PLAINS AREAS BY 3 PM.

DISCUSSION:

 A SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
 PUSHES EAST. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...STRONG WIND SHEAR
 AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT STRONG
 TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
 PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN
 ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS MAY
 CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY...AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
 APPROACHING SQUALL LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 S PURDY               36.80N  93.92W
03/24/2009  E50 MPH          BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 PM     TSTM WND GST     BILLINGS                37.07N  93.55W
03/24/2009  E55 MPH          CHRISTIAN          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALSO HAD PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     TSTM WND GST     REPUBLIC                37.12N  93.48W
03/24/2009  E60 MPH          GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1220 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N WARSAW              38.29N  93.38W
03/24/2009                   BENTON             MO   PUBLIC

            TIMBERLINE ROAD AND CENTER LINE WATER OVER BRIDGE.

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N REPUBLIC            37.15N  93.48W
03/24/2009  M1.29 INCH       GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED 1.29 INCHES OF RAIN IN 10 MINUTES
            LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N WILLARD             37.32N  93.43W
03/24/2009  M60 MPH          GREENE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60 MPH WINDS REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LD